RallyIQ

ATP · Left-handed · 44 charted matches · 2005–2022

Fernando Verdasco

Archetype: Avoids the wide serve · Ad-court slider

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 64.6% ±2.5 raw 61.3% · tour 63.4% · 4,256 points
Return points won 38.5% ±2.6 raw 34.2% · tour 36.6% · 3,968 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.12 ±0.05 better than 85% of ATP · raw +0.12
Shot selection −0.03 ±0.12 better than 48% of ATP · raw −0.04
Execution −0.18 ±0.42 better than 58% of ATP · raw −0.37
Tactical adaptability −0.04 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 44 matches
Adaptation speed +0.07 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Long-rally execution −0.51 ±0.55 shot 9 on v own earlier rally shots · 2,472 shots · better than 13% of ATP
Points left on the table 2.65 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 45% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 20,785 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Fernando Verdasco goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 1,393 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 37% 41.4%±3.5 47.6%
BH down the line 20% 43.7%±4.8 46.4%
BH through the middle 19% 42.0%±4.8 43.7%
BH slice crosscourt 6% 35.4%±7.6 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 5% 32.6%±8.0 35.1%
FH inside-in 5% 56.4%±8.8 54.7%
FH inside-out 3% 51.3%±10.2 51.8%
BH slice down the line 3% 34.5%±9.9 37.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 1,030 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 48% 45.7%±3.6 46.6%
FH down the line 23% 42.0%±5.1 44.7%
FH through the middle 17% 34.5%±5.7 41.5%
FH slice crosscourt 7% 35.8%±8.5 30.9%
FH slice through the middle 4% 22.3%±9.0 24.5%
FH down the line + approach 1% 62.9%±14.5 69.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 959 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 33% 48.5%±4.5 52.7%
FH down the line 24% 53.1%±5.2 51.5%
FH through the middle 14% 39.7%±6.5 47.0%
BH crosscourt 9% 45.3%±7.8 49.1%
BH through the middle 8% 39.0%±8.0 46.8%
BH down the line 6% 40.9%±9.3 48.3%
FH down the line + approach 1% 70.0%±13.1 70.5%
BH slice down the line 1% 42.3%±14.6 45.6%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 853 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 35% 46.5%±4.6 48.0%
BH down the line 20% 43.2%±5.9 46.5%
BH through the middle 19% 42.3%±6.1 43.8%
BH slice crosscourt 8% 38.0%±8.5 42.1%
BH slice through the middle 6% 35.3%±9.5 35.1%
BH slice down the line 4% 34.2%±10.4 35.8%
FH inside-in 4% 45.9%±11.4 54.3%
FH inside-out 2% 57.4%±12.7 52.6%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +2 How much less varied Fernando Verdasco's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 417 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 39% 44% 72% / 73%
Body 11% 13% 57% / 63%
T 50% 43% 65% / 75%

2,104 normal · 95 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 57% 59% 69% / 73%
Body 9% 7% 63% / 63%
T 35% 34% 78% / 72%

1,711 normal · 322 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide39% 61.1%±2.7 n=853 52% ▲
Body11% 54.8%±4.9 n=252 0% ▼
T50% 57.8%±2.4 n=1,094 48% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.09).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide57% 64.0%±2.3 n=1,159 52% ▼
Body9% 60.8%±5.6 n=173 0% ▼
T34% 64.5%±2.9 n=701 48% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.55).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.59 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −0.4±2.9 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (1,736 repeats, 2,408 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 187 38% +0.8±5.4
1stAd courtT 615 23% −5.0±2.7
1stAd courtWide 420 26% −1.0±3.4
1stDeuce courtBody 162 37% +0.3±5.7
1stDeuce courtT 531 24% −1.1±3.0
1stDeuce courtWide 628 29% +1.4±2.9
2ndAd courtBody 224 48% −1.8±5.2
2ndAd courtT 281 48% −1.4±4.7
2ndAd courtWide 154 43% −5.2±6.0
2ndDeuce courtBody 309 46% −3.4±4.5
2ndDeuce courtT 125 49% −0.7±6.6
2ndDeuce courtWide 301 50% +1.6±4.5

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Fernando Verdasco's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.6% · won 61% · −3.9±6.1 vs own baseline
  2. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 59% · −6.3±7.7 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 57% · −8.1±7.8 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 5.5% · won 60% · −5.1±5.1 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.7% · won 52% · −13.2±7.1 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt, short used 2.7% · won 52% · +16.3±7.7 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 3.5% · won 47% · +11.6±6.9 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 2.3% · won 48% · +12.5±8.1 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt, short used 2.4% · won 45% · +9.2±8.0 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt, mid used 2.2% · won 45% · +9.5±8.2 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 1.9% · won 51% · +7.9±7.9 vs own baseline
  2. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 50% · +7.0±7.6 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 6.3% · won 47% · +3.9±4.6 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 5.1% · won 46% · +3.4±5.2 vs own baseline
  5. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 48% · +4.8±7.1 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Fernando Verdasco wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 1.3% · won 54% · +8.8±6.5 vs own baseline · +2.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Nikolay Davydenko (2/7), Novak Djokovic (7/14)
  2. Body serve → FH through the middle return, mid → FH down the line used 0.3% · won 63% · +17.4±10.9 vs own baseline · +28.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andy Murray (10/12)
  3. Wide serve → FH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 57% · +11.7±11.2 vs own baseline · +8.5 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. FH crosscourt → BH slice through the middle → FH down the line used 0.4% · won 55% · +9.7±10.2 vs own baseline · +1.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Juan Martin Del Potro (3/6), Andy Murray (7/13)
  5. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 56% · +10.0±10.5 vs own baseline · +4.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Rafael Nadal (6/8)
  6. FH crosscourt → BH slice through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 56% · +10.7±11.1 vs own baseline · +7.8 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to their forehand · return+2.8480
T 1st serve · ad court+2.4688
Wide 1st serve · ad court+1.61,145
BH to their forehand · rally+0.8968
Body 1st serve · ad court+0.7168

Most exposed to

BH to the middle · return−3.3805
BH slice to the middle · return−2.7217
BH to their forehand · return−2.6458
BH slice to the middle · rally−2.3190
FH to their backhand · return−2.3400

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Juan Carlos Prado Angelo, Cameron Norrie, Daniil Medvedev, Dusan Lajovic, Ugo Humbert

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

1st serve in66%
Forehand share59%
Wide serves · ad57%
BH down the line25%
T serves · deuce50%
Unforced errors / shot11.2%
Deep returns29%
Point-ending shots24.8%
Avg rally length4.1
FH down the line30%
Chipped returns15%
Run-around forehands18%
Backhand slice17%
Serve & volley1%
Drop shots / shot0.9%
T serves · ad34%
Points at net8%
Wide serves · deuce39%
Through the middle21%

Plays most like

  1. Joao Fonseca 2024–2026 plan v
  2. Rafael Jodar 2025–2026 plan v
  3. Sebastian Korda 2021–2026 plan v
  4. Learner Tien 2022–2026 plan v
  5. Nikolay Davydenko 2002–2014 plan v
  6. Ugo Humbert 2019–2026 plan v
  7. Kyle Edmund 2016–2023 plan v
  8. Philipp Kohlschreiber 2008–2019 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Marcelo Rios 1995–2001
  2. Andre Agassi 1988–2006
  3. Petr Korda 1991–1999

Charted matches