Budapest · R32 · Clay · 22 Apr 2019
Aljaz Bedene v Bernard Tomic
88–74 in points · Aljaz Bedene won
Why it went the way it did
Aljaz Bedene won 9.2 more points than Bernard Tomic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Bernard Tomic's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −8.8, return execution −1.8, touch execution −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Aljaz Bedene | Bernard Tomic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.7 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.5 |
| Return | +0.6 | −0.3 | +1.3 | +1.6 | +0.2 | −1.0 | −1.8 | −2.5 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +3.4 | −1.4 | +2.2 | −0.2 | +1.4 | +1.4 | +2.6 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | −0.7 | +1.5 | +1.1 | +0.3 | −0.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −3.0 | −0.5 | −3.3 | +0.2 | −8.8 | −0.2 | −8.9 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.7 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −1.2 | −1.4 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −1.6 | −1.7 |
| All shots | +1.3 | −0.7 | −1.6 | −1.0 | +0.7 | −8.5 | −2.3 | −10.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Aljaz Bedene | Bernard Tomic | Net, Aljaz | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.1 | −5.6 | +3.5 | |
| 2 | +1.1 | −4.5 | +5.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Aljaz Bedene serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 44% | 11% 80% | 51% 67% |
| 2 | 71% 82% | – | 29% 71% |
Set to set −4.74 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.44 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Bernard Tomic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% 65% | 6% 0% | 33% 41% |
| 2 | 69% 44% | 3% 100% | 28% 91% |
Set to set +1.54 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.63 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Aljaz Bedene
7.1 points left on the table across 345 shots 2.05 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.82 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
Bernard Tomic
8.3 points left on the table across 331 shots 2.50 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts