RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 27 charted matches · 2014–2019

Aljaz Bedene

Archetype: Ad-court T server · Two-fisted driver

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 62.1% ±2.8 raw 59.0% · tour 63.4% · 2,286 points
Return points won 37.2% ±2.9 raw 36.4% · tour 36.6% · 2,102 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.05 ±0.07 better than 71% of ATP · raw +0.06
Shot selection +0.17 ±0.11 better than 71% of ATP · raw +0.18
Execution −1.34 ±0.44 better than 14% of ATP · raw −1.15
Tactical adaptability +0.07 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 27 matches
Adaptation speed +0.04 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.27 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 86% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 11,747 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Aljaz Bedene goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 997 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 39% 43.1%±4.0 47.6%
BH through the middle 20% 39.5%±5.4 43.7%
BH down the line 13% 42.3%±6.7 46.4%
FH inside-out 9% 52.1%±7.8 51.8%
BH slice through the middle 6% 34.2%±9.0 35.1%
BH slice crosscourt 5% 38.1%±9.8 42.5%
FH inside-in 4% 58.0%±10.3 54.7%
BH slice down the line 3% 33.5%±11.4 37.1%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 598 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 39% 39.8%±5.1 48.0%
BH through the middle 18% 36.0%±6.9 43.8%
BH down the line 16% 48.1%±7.7 46.5%
BH slice crosscourt 6% 40.0%±10.8 42.1%
FH inside-out 6% 46.3%±11.3 52.6%
BH slice through the middle 5% 28.9%±10.3 35.1%
FH inside-in 4% 40.1%±12.4 54.3%
BH slice down the line 3% 35.4%±12.4 35.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 541 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 48% 43.4%±4.9 46.6%
FH down the line 27% 45.8%±6.4 44.7%
FH through the middle 23% 34.2%±6.5 41.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 475 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 35% 45.6%±6.0 51.5%
FH crosscourt 24% 45.3%±7.0 52.7%
FH through the middle 14% 51.6%±8.9 47.0%
BH through the middle 10% 41.7%±9.8 46.8%
BH crosscourt 7% 47.0%±11.1 49.1%
BH down the line 7% 38.5%±11.2 48.3%
FH down the line + approach 3% 73.8%±12.4 70.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −4 How much less varied Aljaz Bedene's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 246 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 33% 31% 67% / 73%
Body 4% 7% 58% / 63%
T 62% 62% 70% / 75%

1,098 normal · 61 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 50% 48% 69% / 73%
Body 7% 9% 65% / 63%
T 43% 43% 69% / 72%

881 normal · 185 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide33% 60.5%±3.9 n=386 46% ▲
Body5% 52.6%±9.0 n=53 0% ▼
T62% 57.0%±3.0 n=720 54% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.16).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide50% 58.6%±3.4 n=532 44% ▼
Body7% 59.3%±7.8 n=78 0% ▼
T43% 62.0%±3.6 n=456 56% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.48).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.42 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −0.3±3.0 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (1,030 repeats, 1,141 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 30 38% +1.5±10.3
1stAd courtT 204 28% −0.1±4.8
1stAd courtWide 384 26% −1.3±3.5
1stDeuce courtBody 70 46% +9.3±8.2
1stDeuce courtT 347 27% +1.9±3.8
1stDeuce courtWide 275 31% +3.4±4.3
2ndAd courtBody 92 48% −1.2±7.4
2ndAd courtT 56 46% −3.0±8.8
2ndAd courtWide 219 47% −1.2±5.2
2ndDeuce courtBody 118 46% −3.3±6.7
2ndDeuce courtT 195 52% +1.8±5.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 74 53% +5.2±8.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Aljaz Bedene's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH inside-in used 3.0% · won 61% · −1.4±8.5 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.3% · won 60% · −2.8±9.3 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.3% · won 58% · −4.2±9.3 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 2.9% · won 54% · −8.8±8.7 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 4.4% · won 55% · −7.5±7.5 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 8.3% · won 49% · +12.5±6.5 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt, mid used 3.6% · won 52% · +15.9±9.0 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, short used 5.5% · won 42% · +5.7±7.6 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.7% · won 43% · +7.0±9.8 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 5.8% · won 41% · +4.2±7.4 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 3.0% · won 50% · +7.3±7.9 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.9% · won 49% · +6.3±8.1 vs own baseline
  3. BH down the line → FH down the line used 2.3% · won 50% · +6.8±8.8 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 4.5% · won 47% · +4.3±6.8 vs own baseline
  5. FH down the line → FH inside-out used 1.8% · won 48% · +4.8±9.5 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Aljaz Bedene wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. Wide serve → FH through the middle return, mid → FH down the line used 0.4% · won 53% · +9.1±11.7 vs own baseline · +6.6 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 53% · +9.5±12.5 vs own baseline · +16.5 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → FH inside-out used 0.6% · won 51% · +6.9±10.7 vs own baseline · +3.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by John Millman (2/6), Diego Schwartzman (4/8)
  4. FH through the middle → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 52% · +8.4±12.7 vs own baseline · +18.5 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. BH through the middle → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 49% · +4.7±9.5 vs own baseline · +4.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Diego Schwartzman (2/12), Dusan Lajovic (3/6)
  6. FH through the middle → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.5% · won 50% · +6.0±11.2 vs own baseline · +5.0 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to their backhand · return+1.2343
FH to their forehand · return+1.1200
BH to their backhand · rally+0.7693
Body 2nd serve · deuce court+0.4145
BH to their forehand · return+0.3157

Most exposed to

BH to their forehand · rally−4.1342
BH to their forehand · return−2.1121
FH to their forehand · return−1.4199
FH to their forehand · return +1−1.3188
BH to their backhand · return +1−1.3225

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Juncheng Shang, Pedro Martinez, Learner Tien, Miomir Kecmanovic, Nishesh Basavareddy

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

T serves · deuce62%
Run-around forehands26%
Forehand share56%
T serves · ad43%
Avg rally length4.3
Drop shots / shot2.1%
Unforced errors / shot10.9%
FH down the line31%
BH down the line20%
Wide serves · ad50%
Backhand slice18%
Point-ending shots21.9%
Serve & volley1%
Through the middle23%
Chipped returns7%
Points at net6%
Deep returns18%
1st serve in55%
Wide serves · deuce33%

Plays most like

  1. Nicolas Almagro 2006–2019 plan v
  2. Marat Safin 1998–2009 plan v
  3. Philipp Kohlschreiber 2008–2019 plan v
  4. Juan Carlos Ferrero 2000–2009 plan v
  5. Juan Pablo Varillas 2021–2025 plan v
  6. Borna Coric 2015–2025 plan v
  7. Aleksandar Vukic 2019–2025 plan v
  8. Kyle Edmund 2016–2023 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Michael Chang 1989–1998
  2. Wayne Ferreira 1992–2003
  3. Jim Courier 1989–1999

Charted matches