Roland Garros · R128 · Clay · 28 May 2019
Gael Monfils v Taro Daniel
94–59 in points · Gael Monfils won
Why it went the way it did
Gael Monfils won 17.9 more points than Taro Daniel relative to what the serve alone predicted. Taro Daniel's biggest leaks: forehand execution −5.9, slice shot selection −3.6, return execution −3.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Gael Monfils | Taro Daniel | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −1.6 | −1.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.2 | +4.1 | +4.5 | +0.2 | −0.8 | −3.3 | −3.9 |
| Forehand | −1.5 | +3.3 | +0.4 | +2.2 | −0.5 | +4.1 | −5.9 | −2.2 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +9.6 | +11.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +5.1 | +5.5 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −1.4 | +0.2 | −1.5 | +0.1 | −3.6 | −0.1 | −3.6 |
| Net | +0.5 | +0.3 | −1.4 | −0.6 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.4 | +0.9 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.4 | +1.8 | +1.3 | −0.1 | −0.4 | +0.8 | +0.4 |
| All shots | −1.1 | +3.7 | +12.7 | +15.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −2.6 | −2.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Gael Monfils | Taro Daniel | Net, Gael | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.1 | −5.6 | +8.7 | |
| 2 | +7.7 | +6.1 | +1.6 | |
| 3 | +4.4 | −3.1 | +7.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Gael Monfils serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 75% | 29% 100% | 43% 83% |
| 2 | 52% 55% | 7% 100% | 40% 53% |
| 3 | 42% 75% | 11% 100% | 47% 89% |
Set to set +0.89 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.32 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Taro Daniel serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 43% | 15% 33% | 50% 30% |
| 2 | 41% 47% | 7% 100% | 51% 48% |
| 3 | 27% 25% | 13% 50% | 60% 44% |
Set to set −1.34 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.46 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Gael Monfils
11.8 points left on the table across 438 shots 2.69 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×9; FH inside-in rates higher · 1.47 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×17; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×15; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×12; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
Taro Daniel
10.0 points left on the table across 427 shots 2.35 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×8; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.64 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×14; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.58 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.48 pts