RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 12 charted matches · 2014–2024

Taro Daniel

Archetype: Ad-court T server · Two-fisted driver

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 60.5% ±3.4 raw 58.7% · tour 63.4% · 853 points
Return points won 33.8% ±3.3 raw 32.6% · tour 36.6% · 811 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.11 ±0.07 better than 29% of ATP · raw −0.10
Shot selection +0.04 ±0.23 better than 58% of ATP · raw +0.06
Execution −0.09 ±0.78 better than 64% of ATP · raw +0.25
Tactical adaptability −0.07 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 12 matches
Adaptation speed −0.14 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.42 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 71% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 4,654 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Taro Daniel goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 313 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 48% 39.1%±6.2 47.6%
BH through the middle 28% 40.1%±7.7 43.7%
BH down the line 15% 38.6%±9.7 46.4%
FH inside-out 4% 36.4%±13.6 51.8%
BH slice through the middle 4% 40.7%±14.3 35.1%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 284 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 45% 42.3%±6.7 48.0%
BH through the middle 23% 36.9%±8.6 43.8%
BH down the line 18% 40.7%±9.5 46.5%
BH slice crosscourt 6% 35.3%±12.8 42.1%
BH slice through the middle 5% 29.5%±12.9 35.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 248 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 26% 41.5%±8.8 51.5%
FH crosscourt 21% 50.8%±9.7 52.7%
FH through the middle 20% 49.9%±9.9 47.0%
BH crosscourt 17% 52.2%±10.5 49.1%
BH through the middle 13% 31.5%±10.6 46.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 212 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 33% 49.8%±8.6 46.6%
FH down the line 31% 34.8%±8.5 44.7%
FH through the middle 27% 47.1%±9.4 41.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +6 How much less varied Taro Daniel's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 92 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 39% 22% ▼ 71% / 73%
Body 11% 6% 71% / 63%
T 50% 72% ▲ 68% / 75%

426 normal · 18 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 41% 53% ▲ 64% / 73%
Body 6% 5% 61% / 63%
T 53% 42% ▼ 67% / 72%

333 normal · 74 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide39% 60.9%±5.7 n=171 52% ▲
Body11% 67.6%±8.8 n=47 10%
T51% 58.2%±5.1 n=226 38% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.18).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide43% 56.6%±5.7 n=175 56% ▲
Body6% 55.7%±11.1 n=24 0% ▼
T51% 56.6%±5.3 n=208 44% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.98).
Optimal mix: +0.1 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.26 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +3.8±6.0 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (278 repeats, 549 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 22 37% −0.3±11.0
1stAd courtT 101 27% −1.0±6.4
1stAd courtWide 111 23% −4.4±5.8
1stDeuce courtBody 22 37% −0.1±11.0
1stDeuce courtT 114 25% +0.3±6.0
1stDeuce courtWide 134 25% −2.1±5.6
2ndAd courtBody 54 47% −2.0±9.0
2ndAd courtT 16 50% +0.3±12.1
2ndAd courtWide 81 42% −6.5±7.7
2ndDeuce courtBody 53 48% −1.2±9.0
2ndDeuce courtT 51 48% −1.7±9.1
2ndDeuce courtWide 51 44% −4.3±9.1

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Taro Daniel's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Body serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 3.4% · won 60% · −2.1±11.3 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 4.6% · won 60% · −1.8±10.5 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.8% · won 59% · −3.6±11.1 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.8% · won 57% · −5.5±11.1 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (ad court) → BH down the line used 3.4% · won 56% · −6.0±11.5 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 6.0% · won 46% · +11.3±11.3 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 5.5% · won 42% · +7.2±11.4 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 5.5% · won 40% · +5.2±11.4 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 5.2% · won 35% · ±0.0±11.2 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 6.0% · won 31% · −3.8±10.6 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 5.0% · won 47% · +6.8±9.2 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 3.6% · won 45% · +5.3±10.2 vs own baseline
  3. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 5.0% · won 43% · +2.9±9.2 vs own baseline
  4. BH through the middle → FH through the middle used 2.6% · won 44% · +3.6±11.0 vs own baseline
  5. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 4.0% · won 43% · +2.6±9.8 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Taro Daniel wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 2.0% · won 50% · +6.9±9.4 vs own baseline · +4.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Tommy Paul (3/7), Dusan Lajovic (7/15)
  2. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 47% · +4.0±13.0 vs own baseline · +3.2 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.2% · won 44% · +1.4±10.9 vs own baseline · +0.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Dusan Lajovic (5/9)
  4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 44% · +1.8±12.6 vs own baseline · −1.7 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. BH through the middle → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 44% · +0.9±11.3 vs own baseline · −2.2 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 43% · +0.7±11.5 vs own baseline · −9.1 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to the middle · rally+2.1173
BH to the middle · rally+1.4232
BH to their backhand · rally+1.3389
FH to the middle · return+0.7144
FH to their forehand · rally+0.3228

Most exposed to

FH to their backhand · serve +1−5.1146
FH to their backhand · rally−2.6298
BH to their backhand · return−2.4127
FH to their forehand · serve +1−2.1134
BH to the middle · return−1.5180

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Brandon Nakashima, Rinky Hijikata, Thiago Seyboth Wild, Jannik Sinner

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

FH down the line39%
T serves · ad51%
Avg rally length4.6
T serves · deuce51%
Through the middle26%
Deep returns28%
1st serve in61%
BH down the line20%
Points at net10%
Forehand share51%
Serve & volley1%
Run-around forehands14%
Drop shots / shot0.9%
Backhand slice11%
Wide serves · deuce39%
Unforced errors / shot8.2%
Chipped returns6%
Wide serves · ad43%
Point-ending shots17.8%

Plays most like

  1. Janko Tipsarevic 2007–2019 plan v
  2. Viktor Troicki 2009–2021 plan v
  3. Jack Draper 2022–2026 plan v
  4. Jordan Thompson 2016–2025 plan v
  5. Alex De Minaur 2016–2026 plan v
  6. Alexander Zverev 2014–2026 plan v
  7. Borna Coric 2015–2025 plan v
  8. Tomas Machac 2020–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Michael Chang 1989–1998
  2. Marat Safin 1998–2009
  3. Guillermo Canas 2001–2007

Charted matches