Queens Club · R32 · Grass · 17 Jun 2019
Fernando Verdasco v Daniil Medvedev
48–66 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Daniil Medvedev won 9.7 more points than Fernando Verdasco relative to what the serve alone predicted. Fernando Verdasco's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.5, return execution −2.2, serve 2nd execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Fernando Verdasco | Daniil Medvedev | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.3 | −1.4 | +0.2 | −0.2 | +0.4 | +0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.1 | −2.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −2.2 | −2.4 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.5 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +1.7 | −0.3 | +1.8 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +2.6 | +3.3 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.2 | −0.5 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.4 |
| Slice | +0.4 | −3.5 | +1.6 | −1.5 | +0.2 | −1.4 | +0.1 | −1.1 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.6 | −0.2 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +1.6 | +1.8 |
| Touch | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.8 | +0.2 | −0.6 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.7 | −1.6 | −5.7 | −6.6 | +0.4 | −2.0 | +4.6 | +3.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Fernando Verdasco | Daniil Medvedev | Net, Fernando | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.1 | +1.8 | −4.9 | |
| 2 | −3.5 | +1.3 | −4.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Fernando Verdasco serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 55% | 5% 100% | 43% 33% |
| 2 | 47% 56% | 11% 50% | 42% 69% |
Within sets −0.26 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Daniil Medvedev serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% 73% | 4% 100% | 41% 64% |
| 2 | 36% 70% | 4% 100% | 61% 76% |
Within sets −0.17 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Fernando Verdasco
4.9 points left on the table across 186 shots 2.66 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×7; FH down the line rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.17 pts
Daniil Medvedev
4.0 points left on the table across 164 shots 2.42 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts