Bucharest · SF · Clay · 20 Jul 2019
Patricia Maria Tig v Laura Siegemund
63–40 in points · Patricia Maria Tig won
Why it went the way it did
Patricia Maria Tig won 10.0 more points than Laura Siegemund relative to what the serve alone predicted. Laura Siegemund's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.1, slice shot selection −2.6, backhand execution −2.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Patricia Maria Tig | Laura Siegemund | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −1.0 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +1.9 | +2.3 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.3 | −0.7 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.7 | +0.5 | +1.8 | −3.1 | −0.9 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.5 | +2.5 | +2.8 | +0.2 | +0.7 | −2.2 | −1.2 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.1 | −0.2 | −2.4 | +0.1 | −2.6 | −2.0 | −4.6 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.5 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.5 | +0.5 | −0.3 |
| All shots | +0.1 | −0.8 | +4.5 | +3.8 | +0.7 | −0.8 | −6.1 | −6.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Patricia Maria Tig | Laura Siegemund | Net, Patricia | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.7 | −3.7 | +2.0 | |
| 2 | +5.5 | −2.5 | +8.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Patricia Maria Tig serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 68% 65% | 18% 71% | 13% 40% |
| 2 | 57% 58% | 29% 83% | 14% 100% |
Set to set +1.06 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.37 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Laura Siegemund serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 55% | 14% 33% | 36% 75% |
| 2 | 38% 50% | 29% 17% | 33% 29% |
Within sets +0.59 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Patricia Maria Tig
5.0 points left on the table across 186 shots 2.69 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit BH slice down the line + approach ×1; BH slice crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Laura Siegemund
4.9 points left on the table across 210 shots 2.34 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH drop shot through the middle ×2; FH drop shot crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH lob through the middle ×4; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts