RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 7 charted matches · 2015–2020

Patricia Maria Tig

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 57.9% ±3.8 raw 56.7% · tour 56.3% · 434 points
Return points won 44.4% ±3.9 raw 43.3% · tour 43.7% · 436 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.19 ±0.18 better than 84% of WTA · raw +0.20
Shot selection −0.33 ±0.23 better than 20% of WTA · raw −0.31
Execution +0.17 ±0.96 better than 69% of WTA · raw +0.31

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,136 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Patricia Maria Tig goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 122 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 41% 59.3%±9.7 47.6%
BH through the middle 24% 52.4%±11.7 43.3%
BH slice through the middle 11% 29.9%±13.1 34.4%
BH down the line 8% 54.5%±15.0 46.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 117 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 27% 49.1%±11.4 52.7%
BH crosscourt 17% 50.5%±13.0 50.9%
FH through the middle 16% 46.5%±13.1 45.8%
BH through the middle 15% 55.9%±13.2 46.2%
FH down the line 14% 70.7%±12.5 52.2%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 115 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 60% 54.3%±8.7 46.7%
FH down the line 17% 39.9%±12.7 44.9%
FH through the middle 16% 29.6%±12.2 41.3%

Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 62 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 42% 51.7%±12.1 54.0%
FH down the line 23% 51.9%±14.1 53.3%
FH through the middle 19% 47.2%±14.5 45.5%
BH crosscourt 16% 51.6%±15.0 52.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +5 How much less varied Patricia Maria Tig's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 55 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 43% 47% 73% / 66%
Body 26% 5% ▼ 59% / 57%
T 30% 47% ▲ 61% / 68%

208 normal · 19 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 61% 56% 62% / 66%
Body 15% 14% 57% / 56%
T 24% 31% 65% / 64%

171 normal · 36 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide44% 59.6%±7.1 n=99 59% ▲
Body25% 57.3%±8.8 n=56 10% ▼
T32% 54.3%±8.1 n=72 31%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.62).
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide60% 56.0%±6.6 n=124 64% ▲
Body15% 54.6%±10.5 n=31 0% ▼
T25% 57.2%±9.0 n=52 36% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.91).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.63 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −7.2±3.5 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (162 repeats, 258 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 15 45% +0.9±12.2
1stAd courtT 52 37% +1.9±8.8
1stAd courtWide 68 32% −2.5±7.7
1stDeuce courtBody 21 53% +9.9±11.5
1stDeuce courtT 49 32% +0.3±8.7
1stDeuce courtWide 74 38% +3.7±7.8
2ndAd courtBody 20 53% −2.0±11.6
2ndAd courtT 7 55% +0.4±13.4
2ndAd courtWide 44 58% +4.7±9.4
2ndDeuce courtBody 45 46% −8.7±9.5
2ndDeuce courtT 19 53% −3.4±11.7
2ndDeuce courtWide 22 58% +4.2±11.3

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Patricia Maria Tig's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 10.6% · won 58% · −4.3±11.2 vs own baseline
  2. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 9.7% · won 56% · −5.9±11.5 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 14.9% · won 48% · −2.3±11.9 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 13.1% · won 61% · +4.3±11.5 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 12.5% · won 60% · +3.5±11.7 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 13.8% · won 59% · +3.1±11.4 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 19.4% · won 47% · −8.9±10.3 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Patricia Maria Tig wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.7% · won 54% · +1.2±12.9 vs own baseline · +6.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Margarita Gasparyan (7/11)
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.7% · won 48% · −5.5±11.5 vs own baseline · −6.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Margarita Gasparyan (7/17)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · rally−0.2138
Wide 1st serve · ad court−0.4124

Most exposed to

Charted matches