Beijing · R64 · Hard · 29 Sep 2019
Anastasija Sevastova v Elina Svitolina
84–100 in points · Elina Svitolina won
Why it went the way it did
Elina Svitolina won 7.9 more points than Anastasija Sevastova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Anastasija Sevastova's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −5.6, net execution −1.7, touch shot selection −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Anastasija Sevastova | Elina Svitolina | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.1 | −1.4 | −0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.8 | +1.7 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.5 |
| Return | +0.4 | −0.7 | +2.2 | +1.9 | +0.5 | +1.0 | +2.1 | +3.6 |
| Forehand | +0.8 | +1.5 | +0.2 | +2.5 | ±0.0 | +2.4 | +0.9 | +3.3 |
| Backhand | +0.6 | +1.6 | −0.5 | +1.7 | +0.2 | +1.1 | +2.9 | +4.3 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −5.6 | −0.1 | −5.7 | −0.1 | −3.1 | +1.7 | −1.6 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.4 | −1.7 | −1.4 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +1.0 | +1.5 |
| Touch | +0.2 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.9 | −1.7 |
| All shots | +1.9 | −3.7 | +2.0 | +0.2 | +1.0 | +1.3 | +5.9 | +8.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Anastasija Sevastova | Elina Svitolina | Net, Anastasija | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +5.3 | +3.9 | +1.4 | |
| 2 | −3.9 | +2.2 | −6.0 | |
| 3 | −1.2 | +2.1 | −3.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Anastasija Sevastova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 50% | 24% 67% | 31% 47% |
| 2 | 50% 67% | 22% 0% | 28% 40% |
| 3 | 60% 58% | 10% 50% | 30% 50% |
Set to set −0.84 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.86 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Elina Svitolina serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 56% | 13% 83% | 54% 38% |
| 2 | 40% 70% | 4% 100% | 56% 71% |
| 3 | 43% 70% | – | 57% 69% |
Set to set −0.54 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.34 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Anastasija Sevastova
8.6 points left on the table across 399 shots 2.17 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×7; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle hit Smash through the middle ×2; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
Elina Svitolina
9.1 points left on the table across 382 shots 2.39 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×14; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.76 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×12; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts