Shanghai Masters · R32 · Hard · 9 Oct 2019
Reilly Opelka v Roberto Bautista Agut
56–73 in points · Roberto Bautista Agut won
Why it went the way it did
Roberto Bautista Agut won 11.2 more points than Reilly Opelka relative to what the serve alone predicted. Reilly Opelka's biggest leaks: forehand execution −5.0, backhand execution −3.2, return execution −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Reilly Opelka | Roberto Bautista Agut | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | +5.1 | +5.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | +1.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.8 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.7 | −1.8 | −1.2 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +1.6 | +2.1 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +0.8 | −5.0 | −3.9 | −0.4 | +0.9 | +3.2 | +3.7 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | −0.6 | −3.2 | −3.9 | −0.4 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.1 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −1.2 | −2.1 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −0.1 | −1.7 |
| Net | −0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.6 | +0.9 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.5 |
| All shots | −0.2 | −0.2 | −4.5 | −5.0 | −0.6 | −0.2 | +7.1 | +6.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Reilly Opelka | Roberto Bautista Agut | Net, Reilly | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.4 | +2.6 | −7.0 | |
| 2 | −0.6 | +3.6 | −4.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Reilly Opelka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% 67% | 3% 0% | 41% 53% |
| 2 | 46% 53% | 5% 50% | 49% 78% |
Set to set −0.86 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.45 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Roberto Bautista Agut serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 92% | 9% 100% | 39% 78% |
| 2 | 50% 81% | 6% 50% | 44% 79% |
Within sets −0.14 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Reilly Opelka
5.0 points left on the table across 228 shots 2.18 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
Roberto Bautista Agut
4.9 points left on the table across 212 shots 2.32 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts