RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 79 charted matches · 2013–2026

Roberto Bautista Agut

Archetype: Avoids the wide serve · Ad-court slider

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 66.1% ±2.3 raw 64.7% · tour 63.4% · 5,974 points
Return points won 38.3% ±2.4 raw 35.0% · tour 36.6% · 6,048 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.03 ±0.06 better than 65% of ATP · raw +0.03
Shot selection +0.08 ±0.08 better than 62% of ATP · raw +0.08
Execution +1.23 ±0.28 better than 98% of ATP · raw +1.20
Tactical adaptability −0.07 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 76 matches
Adaptation speed +0.01 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Long-rally execution −0.42 ±0.37 shot 9 on v own earlier rally shots · 5,952 shots · better than 19% of ATP
Points left on the table 2.30 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 85% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 33,492 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Roberto Bautista Agut goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 2,548 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 41% 50.3%±2.5 47.6%
BH through the middle 28% 49.4%±3.1 43.7%
BH down the line 8% 43.0%±5.5 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 7% 39.1%±5.5 42.5%
FH inside-out 6% 53.3%±6.4 51.8%
BH slice through the middle 5% 31.7%±6.5 35.1%
FH inside-in 3% 51.9%±8.1 54.7%
FH through the middle 1% 44.8%±11.9 45.2%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 2,076 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 42% 47.8%±2.7 48.0%
BH through the middle 24% 50.3%±3.6 43.8%
BH slice crosscourt 9% 44.3%±5.6 42.1%
BH down the line 7% 54.7%±6.4 46.5%
BH slice through the middle 5% 33.1%±6.8 35.1%
FH inside-out 5% 55.4%±7.4 52.6%
FH inside-in 3% 50.4%±8.9 54.3%
BH drop shot down the line 1% 47.9%±12.3 47.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 1,764 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 25% 58.2%±3.8 52.7%
FH down the line 24% 54.4%±3.9 51.5%
BH through the middle 19% 47.9%±4.4 46.8%
FH through the middle 13% 55.4%±5.2 47.0%
BH crosscourt 12% 45.7%±5.5 49.1%
BH down the line 3% 45.6%±9.4 48.3%
BH slice through the middle 1% 48.8%±12.3 44.8%
BH slice crosscourt 1% 43.8%±12.6 47.0%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 1,474 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 46% 51.4%±3.1 46.6%
FH down the line 25% 47.0%±4.2 44.7%
FH through the middle 19% 38.7%±4.6 41.5%
FH slice through the middle 4% 26.5%±8.4 24.5%
FH slice crosscourt 2% 39.6%±11.3 30.9%
FH slice down the line 2% 25.3%±10.3 25.6%
FH drop shot crosscourt 1% 48.6%±13.7 52.5%
FH down the line + approach 1% 73.9%±12.2 69.3%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +1 How much less varied Roberto Bautista Agut's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 462 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 44% 56% ▲ 70% / 73%
Body 9% 7% 64% / 63%
T 47% 37% ▼ 72% / 75%

3,003 normal · 112 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 55% 57% 70% / 73%
Body 8% 9% 61% / 63%
T 36% 34% 72% / 72%

2,487 normal · 350 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide45% 66.4%±2.1 n=1,390 58% ▲
Body9% 62.8%±4.6 n=268 0% ▼
T47% 65.0%±2.0 n=1,457 42% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.40).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide56% 64.3%±2.0 n=1,579 51% ▼
Body9% 58.2%±4.9 n=242 0% ▼
T36% 65.1%±2.4 n=1,016 49% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.05).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.54 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −0.2±2.0 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (2,678 repeats, 3,118 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 131 47% +9.7±6.5
1stAd courtT 725 28% −0.2±2.7
1stAd courtWide 953 23% −4.1±2.2
1stDeuce courtBody 186 40% +3.1±5.5
1stDeuce courtT 862 24% −0.8±2.4
1stDeuce courtWide 954 26% −0.9±2.3
2ndAd courtBody 359 50% +1.0±4.2
2ndAd courtT 120 48% −1.4±6.7
2ndAd courtWide 597 50% +1.3±3.3
2ndDeuce courtBody 396 50% +0.7±4.0
2ndDeuce courtT 517 49% −0.5±3.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 240 45% −3.5±5.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Roberto Bautista Agut's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.8% · won 66% · ±0.0±5.7 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 4.8% · won 66% · −0.1±4.4 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.6% · won 64% · −2.3±5.1 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 61% · −5.6±6.2 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.6% · won 60% · −6.0±5.3 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.1% · won 49% · +10.2±7.4 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (ad court) → FH through the middle, mid used 2.1% · won 47% · +8.1±7.3 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.2% · won 44% · +5.2±7.1 vs own baseline
  4. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 3.3% · won 43% · +3.9±6.0 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 3.7% · won 43% · +3.5±5.7 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 3.9% · won 55% · +5.6±4.1 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.6% · won 55% · +5.6±4.3 vs own baseline
  3. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 1.9% · won 55% · +6.3±5.7 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 3.6% · won 53% · +4.2±4.3 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 4.3% · won 53% · +3.7±3.9 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Roberto Bautista Agut wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.9% · won 58% · +7.5±5.7 vs own baseline · +5.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Novak Djokovic (4/16), Jenson Brooksby (4/8)
  2. FH down the line → BH slice crosscourt → FH inside-in used 0.2% · won 64% · +13.4±9.5 vs own baseline · +11.5 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. Wide serve → FH through the middle return, deep → FH down the line used 0.2% · won 64% · +13.6±9.8 vs own baseline · +23.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Hubert Hurkacz (6/9)
  4. Wide serve → FH through the middle return, mid → FH down the line used 0.3% · won 62% · +11.8±9.2 vs own baseline · +12.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Hubert Hurkacz (5/8)
  5. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH down the line used 0.3% · won 62% · +11.3±9.3 vs own baseline · +10.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Hubert Hurkacz (2/6), Emil Ruusuvuori (7/7)
  6. BH through the middle → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.4% · won 59% · +8.7±7.8 vs own baseline · +11.0 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

T 2nd serve · ad court+3.8163
BH to their forehand · return+3.0304
FH to their forehand · rally+2.92,746
FH to the middle · serve +1+2.8451
FH to their forehand · serve +1+2.61,005

Most exposed to

FH volley to their backhand · rally−4.1138
FH to their backhand · return−3.9418
BH slice to the middle · return−3.2275
FH to their backhand · serve +1−2.91,064
FH to the middle · return−2.6991

Best-equipped opponents

Active players whose shot mix lines up best against these weaknesses, by structural compatibility per 100 rally shots: Rafael Nadal +2.85, Miomir Kecmanovic +2.52, Jack Draper +2.47, Casper Ruud +2.36, Pedro Martinez +2.30

Favourable matchups

Miomir Kecmanovic +2.60, Roberto Carballes Baena +2.40, Pedro Martinez +2.36, Fabian Marozsan +2.34, Arthur Rinderknech +2.29

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Rafael Nadal, Denis Shapovalov, Casper Ruud, Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

1st serve in68%
Avg rally length4.9
Run-around forehands27%
Wide serves · ad56%
Deep returns30%
FH down the line32%
T serves · deuce47%
Through the middle26%
Forehand share54%
Wide serves · deuce45%
Drop shots / shot1.7%
Chipped returns14%
Backhand slice18%
Serve & volley1%
T serves · ad36%
Points at net7%
Point-ending shots17.3%
Unforced errors / shot7.1%
BH down the line12%

Plays most like

  1. Casper Ruud 2017–2026 plan v
  2. Novak Djokovic 2005–2026 plan v
  3. Brandon Nakashima 2020–2026 plan v
  4. Roberto Carballes Baena 2017–2024 plan v
  5. Bernabe Zapata Miralles 2019–2024 plan v
  6. Gael Monfils 2005–2026 plan v
  7. Karen Khachanov 2015–2026 plan v
  8. Pablo Carreno Busta 2015–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Guillermo Coria 2002–2005
  2. Juan Carlos Ferrero 2000–2009
  3. Magnus Norman 2000–2001

Charted matches