Stockholm · R32 · Hard · 14 Oct 2019
Corentin Moutet v Janko Tipsarevic
40–60 in points · Janko Tipsarevic won
Why it went the way it did
Janko Tipsarevic won 10.2 more points than Corentin Moutet relative to what the serve alone predicted. Corentin Moutet's biggest leaks: forehand execution −5.7, slice shot selection −2.2, serve 2nd execution −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Corentin Moutet | Janko Tipsarevic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.1 |
| Return | −0.5 | −0.1 | +1.3 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +0.9 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +0.9 | −5.7 | −4.6 | −0.2 | +1.8 | +0.7 | +2.3 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +0.7 | −0.4 | +0.5 | +2.0 | +2.1 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −2.2 | −0.6 | −2.7 | +0.1 | −0.6 | +0.1 | −0.5 |
| Net | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.8 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.8 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.3 |
| All shots | −0.3 | −1.2 | −5.3 | −6.8 | −0.2 | +2.2 | +1.4 | +3.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Corentin Moutet | Janko Tipsarevic | Net, Corentin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.7 | +2.9 | −6.6 | |
| 2 | −3.1 | +0.5 | −3.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Corentin Moutet serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 45% | 9% 0% | 43% 40% |
| 2 | 55% 69% | 7% 50% | 38% 55% |
Within sets −1.38 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Janko Tipsarevic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 86% | 5% 100% | 58% 55% |
| 2 | 50% 64% | 4% 0% | 46% 92% |
Within sets −0.33 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Corentin Moutet
5.4 points left on the table across 161 shots 3.33 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×3; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.26 pts
Janko Tipsarevic
4.1 points left on the table across 157 shots 2.59 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.19 pts