Paris Masters · QF · Hard · 1 Nov 2019
Jo Wilfried Tsonga v Rafael Nadal
47–64 in points · Rafael Nadal won
Why it went the way it did
Rafael Nadal won 7.8 more points than Jo Wilfried Tsonga relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jo Wilfried Tsonga's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.7, backhand execution −1.1, slice shot selection −0.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jo Wilfried Tsonga | Rafael Nadal | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | +1.9 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +1.5 | +1.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.8 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +0.1 | +0.6 | −0.9 | −0.3 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +1.3 | −2.7 | −1.5 | −0.2 | +1.0 | +3.7 | +4.5 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.3 | −1.1 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +1.4 | +1.5 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.5 | +0.4 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.7 | −0.4 | −1.4 |
| Net | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.9 | +1.2 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +0.8 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 |
| All shots | +0.2 | +1.4 | −1.1 | +0.5 | −0.8 | +1.2 | +7.8 | +8.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Jo Wilfried Tsonga | Rafael Nadal | Net, Jo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.1 | +5.1 | −2.0 | |
| 2 | −2.6 | +3.2 | −5.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jo Wilfried Tsonga serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% 82% | – | 69% 71% |
| 2 | 67% 42% | 6% 0% | 28% 60% |
Set to set +1.81 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.07 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Rafael Nadal serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51% 72% | 14% 100% | 34% 83% |
| 2 | 52% 67% | 13% 100% | 35% 75% |
Set to set +0.32 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.06 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jo Wilfried Tsonga
3.5 points left on the table across 155 shots 2.28 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Rafael Nadal
5.1 points left on the table across 151 shots 3.37 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.53 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts