Davis Cup Finals · RR · Hard · 19 Nov 2019
Vasek Pospisil v Reilly Opelka
79–82 in points · Vasek Pospisil won
Why it went the way it did
Reilly Opelka won 2.2 more points than Vasek Pospisil relative to what the serve alone predicted. Vasek Pospisil's biggest leaks: return execution −2.3, forehand execution −1.9, return shot selection −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Vasek Pospisil | Reilly Opelka | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +1.5 | +1.8 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +8.3 | +8.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.5 |
| Return | −0.6 | −1.3 | −2.3 | −4.3 | +0.1 | +0.3 | −5.8 | −5.5 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +2.3 | −1.9 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +1.0 | −2.3 | −1.0 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +1.2 | −0.9 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.6 | −1.2 | −0.4 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −1.0 | −0.4 | −1.7 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.4 | −1.0 |
| Net | +0.2 | −0.5 | +0.6 | +0.4 | +0.2 | −0.4 | −1.6 | −1.7 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.8 | +0.9 | −3.6 | −3.5 | +0.9 | +1.5 | −3.6 | −1.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Vasek Pospisil | Reilly Opelka | Net, Vasek | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.1 | −2.7 | +0.6 | |
| 2 | −1.4 | +1.4 | −2.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Vasek Pospisil serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% 86% | 14% 17% | 37% 75% |
| 2 | 50% 70% | 5% 100% | 45% 78% |
Set to set +1.74 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.68 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Reilly Opelka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 58% | 7% 33% | 50% 86% |
| 2 | 32% 91% | 9% 100% | 59% 80% |
Set to set +2.06 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.35 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Vasek Pospisil
4.9 points left on the table across 144 shots 3.42 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
Reilly Opelka
3.3 points left on the table across 165 shots 2.01 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×6; FH through the middle rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts