ATP Cup · F · Hard · 12 Jan 2020
Roberto Bautista Agut v Dusan Lajovic
69–47 in points · Roberto Bautista Agut won
Why it went the way it did
Roberto Bautista Agut won 10.7 more points than Dusan Lajovic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Dusan Lajovic's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.5, serve 1st execution −2.0, touch shot selection −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Roberto Bautista Agut | Dusan Lajovic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.9 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −2.0 | −2.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.7 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.5 | +1.9 | +2.7 | +0.3 | −0.5 | +2.1 | +1.8 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +3.5 | +5.0 | +8.8 | −0.1 | +3.3 | +1.5 | +4.8 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | +0.7 | +5.6 | +6.6 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +3.7 | +4.0 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.9 | −0.2 | −2.0 | ±0.0 | −2.5 | −0.4 | −2.9 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.5 | −0.9 | −0.2 | +0.1 | +0.3 | −1.0 | −0.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.7 | −0.5 | −0.4 | −1.1 | −0.4 | −1.9 |
| All shots | +1.0 | +3.4 | +10.1 | +14.5 | −0.1 | −0.5 | +4.3 | +3.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Roberto Bautista Agut | Dusan Lajovic | Net, Roberto | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +9.4 | +5.7 | +3.6 | |
| 2 | +5.1 | −2.0 | +7.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Roberto Bautista Agut serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 59% | 10% 100% | 46% 61% |
| 2 | 60% 67% | 20% 75% | 20% 75% |
Set to set −0.41 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.56 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Dusan Lajovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 64% | 15% 50% | 30% 42% |
| 2 | 59% 30% | 6% 0% | 35% 33% |
Set to set −0.58 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.64 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Roberto Bautista Agut
6.7 points left on the table across 365 shots 1.83 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
Dusan Lajovic
7.7 points left on the table across 361 shots 2.13 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×13; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts