Adelaide · SF · Hard · 17 Jan 2020
Tommy Paul v Lloyd Harris
86–103 in points · Lloyd Harris won
Why it went the way it did
Lloyd Harris won 10.2 more points than Tommy Paul relative to what the serve alone predicted. Tommy Paul's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −3.3, forehand execution −2.6, return shot selection −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Tommy Paul | Lloyd Harris | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.4 | −0.1 | −3.3 | −3.9 | +0.4 | −0.1 | +1.1 | +1.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −1.9 | −1.4 | −3.3 | +0.1 | −0.2 | +1.9 | +1.8 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +3.8 | −2.6 | +1.5 | +0.1 | +2.0 | −2.8 | −0.8 |
| Backhand | +0.5 | +0.7 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +1.0 | −0.7 | +0.2 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.8 | −1.4 | −3.4 | −0.1 | −1.7 | +0.4 | −1.4 |
| Net | +0.5 | +0.4 | −1.1 | −0.2 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.1 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −0.2 | −1.0 | +0.4 | −0.8 |
| All shots | +0.4 | +0.4 | −10.8 | −9.9 | +0.3 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Tommy Paul | Lloyd Harris | Net, Tommy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −6.4 | +1.1 | −7.5 | |
| 2 | −1.3 | −1.6 | +0.4 | |
| 3 | −2.3 | +0.8 | −3.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Tommy Paul serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 53% | 21% 43% | 33% 55% |
| 2 | 49% 57% | 14% 67% | 37% 63% |
| 3 | 38% 78% | 21% 60% | 42% 60% |
Set to set −0.71 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.57 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Lloyd Harris serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65% 67% | 4% 100% | 30% 100% |
| 2 | 51% 60% | – | 49% 58% |
| 3 | 59% 75% | – | 41% 82% |
Set to set −0.29 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.25 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Tommy Paul
6.7 points left on the table across 323 shots 2.08 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
Lloyd Harris
7.5 points left on the table across 330 shots 2.28 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×13; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts