ATP · Right-handed · 8 charted matches · 2019–2024
Lloyd Harris
Archetype: High-risk · Runs around the backhand
Against an average opponent
Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.
Value per 100 shots
Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,344 shots.
Shot expected value
The share of points Lloyd Harris goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side
position worth 46% to the average player · 181 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 38% | 47.2%±8.8 | 47.6% |
| BH through the middle | 22% | 31.8%±10.0 | 43.7% |
| BH down the line | 11% | 43.2%±12.9 | 46.4% |
| BH slice crosscourt | 8% | 47.1%±13.9 | 42.5% |
| FH inside-out | 8% | 48.1%±14.1 | 51.8% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle
position worth 51% to the average player · 127 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH down the line | 27% | 52.4%±11.2 | 51.5% |
| FH crosscourt | 23% | 46.0%±11.7 | 52.7% |
| FH through the middle | 16% | 51.0%±13.0 | 47.0% |
| BH through the middle | 10% | 52.6%±14.3 | 46.8% |
| BH down the line | 9% | 39.5%±14.2 | 48.3% |
| BH crosscourt | 9% | 54.3%±14.7 | 49.1% |
Return +1: drive to your backhand side
position worth 44% to the average player · 109 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 39% | 43.5%±10.3 | 46.9% |
| BH through the middle | 32% | 39.3%±10.8 | 43.0% |
| BH down the line | 9% | 46.1%±15.0 | 44.2% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side
position worth 44% to the average player · 105 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 50% | 36.5%±9.3 | 46.6% |
| FH through the middle | 32% | 33.9%±10.6 | 41.5% |
| FH down the line | 18% | 38.3%±12.8 | 44.7% |
Serve under pressure
Pressure predictability index +19 How much less varied Lloyd Harris's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 57 break-point first serves.
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 52% | 56% | 73% / 73% |
| Body | 2% | 0% | 62% / 63% |
| T | 46% | 44% | 77% / 75% |
327 normal · 16 break-point 1st serves
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 52% | 76% ▲ | 75% / 73% |
| Body | 3% | 2% | 61% / 63% |
| T | 45% | 22% ▼ | 74% / 72% |
272 normal · 41 break-point 1st serves
Is the serve mix in equilibrium?
Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 52% | 62.7%±5.5 n=180 | 66% ▲ |
| Body | 1% | 60.9%±13.6 n=5 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 46% | 61.7%±5.8 n=158 | 34% ▼ |
Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.79).
Optimal mix: +0.1 per 100 first serves.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 55% | 59.3%±5.7 n=172 | 45% ▼ |
| Body | 3% | 56.9%±12.9 n=10 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 42% | 64.2%±6.2 n=131 | 55% ▲ |
Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.42).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.
Exploitability 0.26 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.
Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −1.3±9.4 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (369 repeats, 271 switches.)
Return by serve direction
Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.
| Serve | Court | Direction | Points | Won | vs tour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Ad court | Body | 19 | 33% | −4.1±11.0 | |
| 1st | Ad court | T | 74 | 32% | +4.1±7.5 | |
| 1st | Ad court | Wide | 115 | 26% | −0.9±6.0 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Body | 28 | 35% | −2.2±10.3 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | T | 86 | 17% | −8.2±5.7 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Wide | 115 | 35% | +7.4±6.5 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Body | 34 | 54% | +5.0±10.2 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | T | 23 | 51% | +1.3±11.3 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Wide | 54 | 49% | +1.1±9.0 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Body | 48 | 43% | −5.8±9.2 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | T | 40 | 50% | +0.2±9.8 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Wide | 38 | 51% | +2.5±10.0 |
Signature patterns
Recurring sequences that win more than Lloyd Harris's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.
Serve → +1
- T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 5.2% · won 57% · −13.5±11.4 vs own baseline
Return
- vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 9.0% · won 57% · +10.8±11.2 vs own baseline
- vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 11.2% · won 50% · +3.4±10.5 vs own baseline
- vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, short used 10.5% · won 40% · −6.9±10.6 vs own baseline
Rally, consecutive own shots
- FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 5.7% · won 50% · +6.7±11.5 vs own baseline
- BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 6.7% · won 48% · +4.9±11.0 vs own baseline
- FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 6.5% · won 47% · +4.0±11.1 vs own baseline
- BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 6.0% · won 45% · +2.0±11.3 vs own baseline
- BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 9.1% · won 43% · −0.2±10.0 vs own baseline
Discovered sequences
Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Lloyd Harris wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.
- BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 1.0% · won 53% · +9.8±12.8 vs own baseline · +23.5 vs tour on the same sequence
- BH through the middle → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 49% · +5.0±12.6 vs own baseline · +8.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Robin Haase (3/6)
- FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH down the line used 1.0% · won 49% · +4.9±12.9 vs own baseline · +3.2 vs tour on the same sequence
- BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.5% · won 45% · +1.1±11.7 vs own baseline · −2.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Carlos Alcaraz (5/11)
- FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.7% · won 42% · −1.5±11.3 vs own baseline · −8.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Hubert Hurkacz (4/10)
Strengths and vulnerabilities
Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.
Hurts opponents most with
| FH to the middle · return | +3.7 | 141 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | +1.0 | 168 |
| Wide 1st serve · ad court | +0.4 | 172 |
| T 1st serve · deuce court | +0.4 | 158 |
| T 1st serve · ad court | −0.1 | 131 |
Most exposed to
| BH to their backhand · rally | −1.1 | 147 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −0.9 | 166 |
| T 1st serve · deuce court | −0.2 | 132 |
| Wide 1st serve · ad court | ±0.0 | 174 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +0.3 | 174 |
Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Richard Gasquet, Nishesh Basavareddy, Arthur Cazaux, Jaume Munar, Daniel Evans
Tactical fingerprint
Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.
| Wide serves · deuce | 52% | |
| Run-around forehands | 31% | |
| Deep returns | 35% | |
| Unforced errors / shot | 12.4% | |
| Wide serves · ad | 55% | |
| Forehand share | 56% | |
| T serves · ad | 42% | |
| Points at net | 13% | |
| Point-ending shots | 25.1% | |
| T serves · deuce | 46% | |
| Chipped returns | 15% | |
| FH down the line | 30% | |
| 1st serve in | 61% | |
| Avg rally length | 3.9 | |
| Drop shots / shot | 1.3% | |
| Through the middle | 24% | |
| Backhand slice | 17% | |
| Serve & volley | 3% | |
| BH down the line | 17% |
Plays most like
- Arthur Fils 2023–2026 plan v
- Roman Safiullin 2017–2025 plan v
- Stefanos Tsitsipas 2016–2026 plan v
- Marin Cilic 2009–2026 plan v
- Felix Auger Aliassime 2017–2026 plan v
- Tallon Griekspoor 2018–2026 plan v
- Zizou Bergs 2021–2026 plan v
- Alexei Popyrin 2019–2026 plan v
Closest from another era
- James Blake 2002–2011
- Sebastien Grosjean 1999–2005
- Magnus Norman 2000–2001
Charted matches
- Alex Michelsen v Lloyd Harris W Wimbledon R128 · Grass · 1 Jul 2024
- Lloyd Harris v Carlos Alcaraz L US Open R64 · Hard · 31 Aug 2023
- Hubert Hurkacz v Lloyd Harris L Miami Masters R16 · Hard · 29 Mar 2022
- Lloyd Harris v Matteo Berrettini L Indian Wells Masters R16 · Hard · 15 Mar 2022
- Tommy Paul v Lloyd Harris W Adelaide SF · Hard · 17 Jan 2020
- Robin Haase v Lloyd Harris L Miami Masters R64 · Hard · 22 Mar 2019
- Daniel Evans v Lloyd Harris L Delray Beach R16 · Hard · 20 Feb 2019
- Lorenzo Giustino v Lloyd Harris W Launceston CH F · Hard · 3 Feb 2019