Australian Open · R128 · Hard · 21 Jan 2020
Kirsten Flipkens v Karolina Muchova
104–106 in points · Karolina Muchova won
Why it went the way it did
Karolina Muchova won 0.3 more points than Kirsten Flipkens relative to what the serve alone predicted. Kirsten Flipkens's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −7.3, return shot selection −5.3, forehand execution −4.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Kirsten Flipkens | Karolina Muchova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.8 | +0.5 | −0.7 | +0.6 | −0.1 | +0.3 | −1.7 | −1.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.8 | +1.8 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Return | +0.1 | −5.3 | +2.5 | −2.7 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +1.4 | +1.4 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +4.0 | −4.7 | −0.5 | −0.2 | +4.2 | −4.4 | −0.4 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +1.1 | −1.5 | −0.4 | −0.1 | +1.1 | −2.9 | −1.9 |
| Slice | +0.5 | −7.3 | +3.5 | −3.3 | ±0.0 | −4.6 | +0.9 | −3.8 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.7 | +1.0 | +1.6 | +0.1 | +0.6 | −0.8 | −0.1 |
| Touch | +0.2 | −1.3 | −0.7 | −1.8 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +2.2 | +2.1 |
| Other | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.5 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −1.0 | −1.2 |
| All shots | +1.7 | −7.9 | +0.7 | −5.5 | −0.2 | +1.1 | −6.1 | −5.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Kirsten Flipkens | Karolina Muchova | Net, Kirsten | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.4 | −1.0 | −3.4 | |
| 2 | −0.4 | −5.3 | +4.9 | |
| 3 | −0.7 | +1.0 | −1.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Kirsten Flipkens serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65% 59% | 12% 67% | 23% 33% |
| 2 | 74% 64% | – | 26% 60% |
| 3 | 60% 48% | 7% 75% | 33% 67% |
Set to set +1.07 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.98 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Karolina Muchova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 20% | 18% 80% | 46% 92% |
| 2 | 38% 30% | 23% 33% | 38% 50% |
| 3 | 35% 76% | 22% 45% | 43% 57% |
Set to set +0.51 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.79 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Kirsten Flipkens
11.9 points left on the table across 351 shots 3.40 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob down the line ×2; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.31 pts
Karolina Muchova
13.0 points left on the table across 363 shots 3.57 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×4; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit BH slice down the line + approach ×2; BH slice crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts