RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 10 charted matches · 2013–2022

Kirsten Flipkens

Archetype: Chip returner · Slice-heavy

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 56.6% ±3.5 raw 54.3% · tour 56.3% · 753 points
Return points won 44.8% ±3.6 raw 42.5% · tour 43.7% · 715 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.47 ±0.14 better than 99% of WTA · raw +0.47
Shot selection −1.40 ±0.28 better than 1% of WTA · raw −1.39
Execution −0.56 ±0.51 better than 31% of WTA · raw −0.47
Tactical adaptability −0.07 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 10 matches
Adaptation speed +0.07 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.87 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 19% of WTA

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,870 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Kirsten Flipkens goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 203 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 49% 39.2%±7.3 40.4%
BH slice through the middle 27% 46.5%±9.5 34.4%
BH crosscourt 10% 46.3%±13.0 47.6%
BH slice down the line 7% 41.0%±13.7 31.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 116 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 49% 35.5%±9.0 46.7%
FH down the line 19% 47.6%±12.7 44.9%
FH through the middle 16% 36.6%±12.7 41.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 115 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 21% 44.2%±12.3 52.2%
FH crosscourt 19% 48.9%±12.7 52.7%
BH slice through the middle 17% 47.4%±13.0 44.8%
FH through the middle 17% 46.5%±13.1 45.8%
BH slice crosscourt 11% 42.1%±14.1 49.5%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 110 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 51% 47.3%±9.4 39.6%
BH slice through the middle 27% 35.3%±11.1 33.2%
BH crosscourt 9% 41.9%±14.8 47.8%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +17 How much less varied Kirsten Flipkens's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 104 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 49% 33% ▼ 56% / 66%
Body 10% 4% 56% / 57%
T 40% 63% ▲ 67% / 68%

363 normal · 27 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 59% 70% ▲ 69% / 66%
Body 13% 8% 51% / 56%
T 29% 22% 61% / 64%

283 normal · 77 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide48% 54.3%±5.6 n=188 43% ▼
Body10% 55.1%±9.9 n=39 0% ▼
T42% 57.4%±5.9 n=163 57% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.76).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide61% 55.2%±5.2 n=220 72% ▲
Body12% 46.4%±9.7 n=42 0% ▼
T27% 53.7%±7.3 n=98 28%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.24).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.50 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −6.8±7.6 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (318 repeats, 412 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 42 43% −0.6±9.6
1stAd courtT 84 35% −0.7±7.3
1stAd courtWide 87 35% +0.9±7.3
1stDeuce courtBody 67 48% +5.6±8.3
1stDeuce courtT 89 29% −3.0±6.9
1stDeuce courtWide 85 38% +3.6±7.4
2ndAd courtBody 49 50% −5.0±9.3
2ndAd courtT 35 53% −1.9±10.2
2ndAd courtWide 45 56% +2.5±9.4
2ndDeuce courtBody 79 55% +0.9±7.8
2ndDeuce courtT 26 51% −4.6±11.0
2ndDeuce courtWide 25 49% −4.4±11.1

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Kirsten Flipkens's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 4.8% · won 59% · −1.1±11.4 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 5.3% · won 47% · −12.7±11.3 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH slice crosscourt, mid used 14.6% · won 59% · +11.1±10.4 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH slice crosscourt → BH slice through the middle used 9.6% · won 45% · +6.1±10.1 vs own baseline
  2. BH slice through the middle → FH crosscourt used 5.9% · won 46% · +7.7±11.6 vs own baseline
  3. BH slice through the middle → BH slice through the middle used 5.9% · won 44% · +5.7±11.5 vs own baseline
  4. BH slice through the middle → BH slice crosscourt used 10.7% · won 39% · +0.6±9.6 vs own baseline
  5. BH slice crosscourt → BH slice down the line used 5.9% · won 36% · −2.1±11.2 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Kirsten Flipkens wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt used 1.8% · won 45% · +1.7±11.4 vs own baseline · +0.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Simona Halep (5/6)
  2. BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH slice through the middle used 1.3% · won 45% · +1.9±12.4 vs own baseline · +7.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Simona Halep (3/9)
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 42% · −0.7±12.6 vs own baseline · −7.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Belinda Bencic (2/6)
  4. BH slice through the middle → FH down the line → BH slice crosscourt used 1.4% · won 41% · −2.2±11.9 vs own baseline · −1.0 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. BH slice crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt used 1.4% · won 39% · −3.5±12.0 vs own baseline · −11.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roberta Vinci (6/15)
  6. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt used 1.1% · won 33% · −9.4±12.2 vs own baseline · −22.7 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH slice to the middle · rally+1.8133
BH slice to their backhand · rally+1.4228
T 1st serve · deuce court+0.5163
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+0.2188
BH slice to the middle · return−0.1124

Most exposed to

FH to the middle · return−2.0126
BH to the middle · return−0.4163
FH to their forehand · rally−0.4124
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.2150
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+0.2129

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Elina Avanesyan, Caroline Wozniacki, Sara Sorribes Tormo, Lin Zhu, Qiang Wang

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the WTA average, in standard deviations.

Backhand slice80%
Chipped returns49%
Points at net21%
Wide serves · ad61%
Serve & volley12%
Drop shots / shot3.4%
Run-around forehands16%
Wide serves · deuce48%
T serves · deuce42%
FH down the line32%
1st serve in65%
BH down the line22%
Avg rally length4.2
Point-ending shots23.8%
Deep returns31%
Unforced errors / shot9.1%
T serves · ad27%
Forehand share50%
Through the middle21%

Plays most like

  1. Roberta Vinci 2012–2017 plan v
  2. Francesca Schiavone 2006–2017 plan v
  3. Petra Martic 2010–2024 plan v
  4. Amelie Mauresmo 1999–2009 plan v
  5. Conchita Martinez 1993–2003 plan v
  6. Karolina Muchova 2019–2026 plan v
  7. Steffi Graf 1985–1999 plan v
  8. Ashleigh Barty 2013–2022 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Conchita Martinez 1993–2003
  2. Steffi Graf 1985–1999
  3. Gabriela Sabatini 1988–1995

Charted matches