Hua Hin · R16 · Hard · 13 Feb 2020
Patricia Maria Tig v Xiaodi You
58–42 in points · Patricia Maria Tig won
Why it went the way it did
Patricia Maria Tig won 8.6 more points than Xiaodi You relative to what the serve alone predicted. Xiaodi You's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.2, touch execution −1.8, slice execution −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Patricia Maria Tig | Xiaodi You | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.6 | −0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −2.8 | −2.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.7 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.3 | +2.1 | +1.7 | +0.2 | +0.3 | −0.2 | +0.3 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +0.7 | +2.6 | +3.6 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +1.1 | +2.0 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | +1.1 | −0.2 | +1.1 | −0.4 | +0.7 | −0.7 | −0.3 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −3.1 | +0.4 | −2.6 | −0.4 | −3.2 | −1.7 | −5.2 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −1.1 | −1.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −1.4 | −1.3 |
| Touch | +0.4 | −0.6 | +3.0 | +2.7 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −1.8 | −2.5 |
| All shots | +1.1 | −2.2 | +2.9 | +1.8 | −1.0 | −1.3 | −4.5 | −6.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Patricia Maria Tig | Xiaodi You | Net, Patricia | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.7 | −3.3 | +6.0 | |
| 2 | −0.9 | −3.5 | +2.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Patricia Maria Tig serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 64% 64% | 18% 100% | 18% 75% |
| 2 | 46% 64% | 25% 33% | 29% 29% |
Within sets +0.44 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Xiaodi You serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 25% | 32% 71% | 32% 43% |
| 2 | 50% 38% | 6% 0% | 44% 50% |
Within sets −0.75 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Patricia Maria Tig
4.5 points left on the table across 206 shots 2.20 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
Xiaodi You
6.3 points left on the table across 201 shots 3.11 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts