Rome · R16 · Clay · 18 Sep 2020
Victoria Azarenka v Daria Kasatkina
48–48 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Daria Kasatkina won 0.8 more points than Victoria Azarenka relative to what the serve alone predicted. Victoria Azarenka's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.3, touch execution −1.8, slice execution −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Victoria Azarenka | Daria Kasatkina | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.3 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.4 | +3.4 | +3.9 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +2.3 | +2.9 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.7 | +0.7 | +2.6 | +0.7 | +1.8 | +1.1 | +3.6 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | −0.2 | +1.6 | +1.6 | −0.2 | +0.4 | +0.9 | +1.1 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.3 | −0.8 | −3.2 | −0.2 | −2.7 | +1.6 | −1.3 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.2 | +1.9 | +2.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −1.8 | −1.9 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.6 |
| All shots | +0.6 | −0.4 | +4.7 | +5.0 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | +5.0 | +5.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Victoria Azarenka | Daria Kasatkina | Net, Victoria | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +5.0 | +5.8 | −0.8 |
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Victoria Azarenka
5.0 points left on the table across 229 shots 2.19 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
Daria Kasatkina
4.9 points left on the table across 235 shots 2.08 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts