RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 69 charted matches · 2015–2026

Daria Kasatkina

Archetype: Rarely serves the T · Patient builder

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 54.8% ±2.6 raw 52.8% · tour 56.3% · 4,983 points
Return points won 47.5% ±2.6 raw 45.4% · tour 43.7% · 5,114 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.08 ±0.07 better than 70% of WTA · raw +0.08
Shot selection −0.29 ±0.11 better than 22% of WTA · raw −0.28
Execution +1.39 ±0.30 better than 96% of WTA · raw +1.44
Tactical adaptability +0.19 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 66 matches
Adaptation speed +0.16 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.36 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 79% of WTA

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 29,086 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Daria Kasatkina goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 2,443 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 37% 49.7%±2.7 47.6%
BH through the middle 22% 45.6%±3.5 43.3%
BH slice crosscourt 11% 46.1%±4.9 40.4%
BH down the line 11% 53.9%±4.9 46.8%
BH slice through the middle 8% 37.0%±5.3 34.4%
FH inside-out 4% 53.8%±7.5 52.5%
FH inside-in 2% 54.1%±9.4 55.6%
BH slice down the line 2% 42.9%±10.0 31.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 1,693 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 41% 48.0%±3.1 46.7%
FH through the middle 24% 46.2%±4.0 41.3%
FH down the line 21% 48.9%±4.3 44.9%
FH slice through the middle 6% 23.7%±6.2 29.2%
FH slice crosscourt 6% 32.5%±7.2 31.9%
FH lob through the middle 1% 32.0%±13.2 29.4%
FH slice down the line 1% 26.2%±13.2 24.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 1,622 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 29% 57.1%±3.7 52.2%
FH crosscourt 24% 54.1%±4.1 52.7%
FH through the middle 16% 46.0%±5.0 45.8%
BH through the middle 11% 48.1%±5.9 46.2%
BH crosscourt 10% 53.3%±6.0 50.9%
BH down the line 6% 50.0%±7.6 50.0%
BH slice through the middle 1% 53.4%±12.5 44.8%
BH slice down the line 1% 42.6%±13.4 43.9%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 1,463 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 34% 54.0%±3.6 47.9%
BH through the middle 19% 44.8%±4.8 42.7%
BH down the line 13% 56.5%±5.6 46.7%
BH slice through the middle 11% 39.8%±5.9 33.4%
BH slice crosscourt 10% 37.1%±6.1 38.7%
FH inside-out 4% 57.5%±9.2 54.1%
BH slice down the line 3% 33.0%±9.7 34.0%
FH inside-in 2% 62.6%±12.1 54.7%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +1 How much less varied Daria Kasatkina's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 669 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 43% 45% 63% / 66%
Body 25% 23% 57% / 57%
T 32% 32% 65% / 68%

2,403 normal · 156 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 40% 39% 57% / 66%
Body 23% 22% 52% / 56%
T 38% 40% 61% / 64%

1,875 normal · 513 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide43% 54.8%±2.4 n=1,106 58% ▲
Body25% 52.8%±3.2 n=633 10% ▼
T32% 52.6%±2.8 n=820 32%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.53).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide40% 51.8%±2.6 n=944 40%
Body22% 49.5%±3.5 n=535 7% ▼
T38% 53.6%±2.7 n=909 53% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.25).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.43 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −0.3±2.7 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (1,499 repeats, 3,310 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 332 44% +0.1±4.3
1stAd courtT 561 37% +1.8±3.3
1stAd courtWide 641 40% +5.1±3.1
1stDeuce courtBody 392 48% +5.7±4.0
1stDeuce courtT 583 33% +1.2±3.1
1stDeuce courtWide 721 37% +2.6±2.9
2ndAd courtBody 419 57% +1.6±3.8
2ndAd courtT 123 48% −7.0±6.6
2ndAd courtWide 384 59% +5.2±4.0
2ndDeuce courtBody 475 57% +2.4±3.6
2ndDeuce courtT 292 54% −2.0±4.6
2ndDeuce courtWide 159 59% +5.0±5.9

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Daria Kasatkina's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.4% · won 59% · +1.3±6.0 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 3.2% · won 58% · +0.1±6.2 vs own baseline
  3. Body serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 57% · −0.2±7.0 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.3% · won 56% · −1.1±7.2 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (ad court) → BH down the line used 2.6% · won 56% · −1.4±6.8 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, deep used 2.5% · won 59% · +12.7±6.8 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 4.0% · won 53% · +7.0±5.7 vs own baseline
  3. vs body serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 2.4% · won 54% · +8.3±7.1 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.9% · won 53% · +7.0±6.5 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.8% · won 52% · +5.4±6.6 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 2.1% · won 60% · +9.9±5.8 vs own baseline
  2. FH down the line → BH down the line used 1.5% · won 61% · +10.9±6.6 vs own baseline
  3. FH down the line → FH down the line used 1.8% · won 59% · +9.0±6.2 vs own baseline
  4. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 2.0% · won 58% · +7.5±5.9 vs own baseline
  5. BH down the line → FH down the line used 1.4% · won 59% · +8.6±6.8 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Daria Kasatkina wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.8% · won 61% · +11.6±6.4 vs own baseline · +9.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Sara Sorribes Tormo (3/10), Iga Swiatek (2/6)
  2. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 59% · +9.7±6.8 vs own baseline · +7.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Johanna Konta (3/6), Elina Avanesyan (4/7)
  3. BH through the middle → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.4% · won 61% · +11.9±8.3 vs own baseline · +15.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Bianca Andreescu (6/7)
  4. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.5% · won 55% · +5.9±4.9 vs own baseline · +6.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Iga Swiatek (2/12), Varvara Gracheva (2/8)
  5. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.8% · won 57% · +7.9±6.5 vs own baseline · +5.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Garbine Muguruza (3/6), Iga Swiatek (4/8)
  6. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 0.5% · won 58% · +8.9±8.0 vs own baseline · +8.3 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to their backhand · return+3.4601
BH to their forehand · rally+3.4855
FH to their forehand · return+3.3424
FH to their backhand · return+3.1532
FH to the middle · return+3.0947

Most exposed to

FH to their backhand · return−4.5408
BH to their backhand · return−3.6809
T 2nd serve · ad court−3.4123
BH to their backhand · return +1−3.0662
BH to their forehand · serve +1−2.7347

Best-equipped opponents

Active players whose shot mix lines up best against these weaknesses, by structural compatibility per 100 rally shots: Sara Sorribes Tormo +3.62, Caroline Wozniacki +3.50, Angelique Kerber +2.78, Sara Errani +2.74, Linda Fruhvirtova +2.63

Favourable matchups

Sara Errani +3.82, Angelique Kerber +3.57, Marie Bouzkova +3.54, Elina Avanesyan +3.20, Magdalena Frech +3.09

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Angelique Kerber, Caroline Wozniacki, Emma Raducanu, Alexandra Eala, Sara Sorribes Tormo

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the WTA average, in standard deviations.

Avg rally length4.9
1st serve in68%
FH down the line34%
Run-around forehands14%
Wide serves · deuce43%
Backhand slice21%
Forehand share54%
Deep returns33%
T serves · ad38%
Chipped returns10%
BH down the line20%
Serve & volley0%
Wide serves · ad40%
Through the middle27%
Drop shots / shot0.9%
T serves · deuce32%
Points at net4%
Unforced errors / shot7.8%
Point-ending shots17.4%

Plays most like

  1. Caroline Wozniacki 2008–2024 plan v
  2. Emma Navarro 2019–2026 plan v
  3. Simona Halep 2013–2022 plan v
  4. Elena Dementieva 1999–2010 plan v
  5. Svetlana Kuznetsova 2004–2021 plan v
  6. Linda Fruhvirtova 2022–2025 plan v
  7. Emma Raducanu 2018–2026 plan v
  8. Marie Bouzkova 2018–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Elena Dementieva 1999–2010
  2. Jennifer Capriati 1990–2002
  3. Martina Hingis 1996–2007

Charted matches