Roland Garros · Q3 · Clay · 24 Sep 2020
Aleksandar Vukic v Jason Jung
93–80 in points · Aleksandar Vukic won
Why it went the way it did
Aleksandar Vukic won 2.8 more points than Jason Jung relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jason Jung's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.3, backhand shot selection −2.2, forehand direction choices −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Aleksandar Vukic | Jason Jung | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.2 | +1.9 | +1.7 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −0.6 | −1.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.9 | +1.8 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.6 | −1.2 | −0.8 | −0.4 | −1.4 | −1.7 | −3.5 |
| Forehand | −1.9 | +2.5 | +1.6 | +2.2 | −1.9 | +1.6 | +1.0 | +0.8 |
| Backhand | −1.3 | −2.7 | −0.5 | −4.4 | −0.9 | −2.2 | +1.0 | −2.0 |
| Slice | −0.9 | −3.4 | −2.6 | −6.9 | −0.6 | −4.3 | −0.4 | −5.3 |
| Net | −0.4 | +0.2 | −0.5 | −0.6 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.4 |
| Touch | −0.4 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.6 |
| All shots | −5.0 | −2.9 | +0.3 | −7.7 | −4.4 | −5.9 | −0.2 | −10.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Aleksandar Vukic | Jason Jung | Net, Aleksandar | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.2 | −6.2 | +6.0 | |
| 2 | −4.2 | −2.3 | −1.9 | |
| 3 | −3.2 | −1.9 | −1.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Aleksandar Vukic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 80% | 7% 50% | 39% 64% |
| 2 | 52% 50% | 9% 50% | 39% 67% |
| 3 | 62% 55% | 10% 80% | 28% 64% |
Set to set +0.45 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.20 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jason Jung serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 33% | 35% 57% | 20% 50% |
| 2 | 43% 58% | 25% 86% | 32% 56% |
| 3 | 41% 67% | 32% 57% | 27% 67% |
Set to set −2.34 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.14 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Aleksandar Vukic
14.0 points left on the table across 431 shots 3.26 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×13; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.74 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×13; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
Jason Jung
13.6 points left on the table across 424 shots 3.20 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.95 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×15; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.82 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.65 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.57 pts