RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 14 charted matches · 2019–2025

Aleksandar Vukic

Archetype: Rallies through the middle · Crosscourt backhand

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.6% ±3.1 raw 62.4% · tour 63.4% · 1,140 points
Return points won 34.2% ±3.1 raw 30.6% · tour 36.6% · 1,005 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.13 ±0.20 better than 24% of ATP · raw −0.13
Shot selection +0.04 ±0.24 better than 58% of ATP · raw +0.05
Execution −0.89 ±0.39 better than 28% of ATP · raw −0.72
Tactical adaptability +0.01 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 14 matches
Adaptation speed −0.02 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.44 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 68% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 5,048 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Aleksandar Vukic goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 318 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 36% 42.3%±7.0 47.6%
BH through the middle 21% 34.2%±8.4 43.7%
BH down the line 12% 33.2%±10.2 46.4%
FH inside-out 9% 53.8%±11.7 51.8%
FH inside-in 8% 56.4%±12.0 54.7%
BH slice through the middle 6% 31.7%±12.4 35.1%
FH through the middle 4% 42.5%±14.2 45.2%
BH slice crosscourt 3% 37.1%±14.3 42.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 283 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 25% 56.4%±8.6 51.5%
FH crosscourt 25% 56.2%±8.6 52.7%
BH through the middle 19% 41.6%±9.5 46.8%
FH through the middle 15% 47.4%±10.4 47.0%
BH crosscourt 10% 46.6%±11.7 49.1%
BH down the line 6% 46.5%±13.3 48.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 207 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 42% 40.9%±7.9 46.6%
FH down the line 28% 37.6%±9.1 44.7%
FH through the middle 21% 34.8%±9.8 41.5%
FH slice through the middle 6% 21.6%±12.0 24.5%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 202 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 28% 57.4%±9.3 48.0%
BH through the middle 27% 37.5%±9.3 43.8%
BH down the line 20% 40.5%±10.4 46.5%
FH inside-out 7% 48.6%±14.1 52.6%
BH slice through the middle 7% 35.4%±13.5 35.1%
FH inside-in 6% 54.1%±14.3 54.3%
BH slice crosscourt 5% 46.5%±14.7 42.1%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −2 How much less varied Aleksandar Vukic's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 109 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 44% 43% 70% / 73%
Body 9% 4% 56% / 63%
T 47% 52% 78% / 75%

571 normal · 23 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 55% 43% ▼ 77% / 73%
Body 5% 7% 62% / 63%
T 40% 50% ▲ 72% / 72%

460 normal · 86 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide44% 57.3%±4.7 n=264 40% ▼
Body9% 53.3%±9.1 n=51 0% ▼
T47% 66.8%±4.4 n=279 60% ▲

Off equilibrium (p = 0.005): serve T more. Gap 5.3 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide53% 64.6%±4.4 n=292 67% ▲
Body5% 61.0%±10.4 n=29 0% ▼
T41% 63.3%±5.0 n=225 33% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.75).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.56 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: ±0.0±4.6 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (539 repeats, 573 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 38 38% +1.4±9.7
1stAd courtT 100 19% −9.3±5.6
1stAd courtWide 177 27% −0.1±5.1
1stDeuce courtBody 72 41% +4.5±8.0
1stDeuce courtT 143 14% −10.9±4.4
1stDeuce courtWide 131 25% −2.2±5.6
2ndAd courtBody 71 44% −5.0±8.1
2ndAd courtT 25 51% +1.2±11.1
2ndAd courtWide 62 46% −2.2±8.6
2ndDeuce courtBody 103 48% −1.1±7.1
2ndDeuce courtT 53 41% −8.8±8.9
2ndDeuce courtWide 30 41% −7.4±10.4

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Aleksandar Vukic's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.1% · won 65% · −3.3±10.5 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 3.8% · won 66% · −3.2±9.9 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 2.4% · won 59% · −9.5±11.5 vs own baseline
  4. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.1% · won 60% · −8.7±10.8 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.3% · won 58% · −10.8±10.6 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs body serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 6.8% · won 44% · +8.6±10.7 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, deep used 5.6% · won 43% · +7.1±11.2 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, short used 5.8% · won 42% · +6.3±11.1 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 5.6% · won 39% · +3.4±11.1 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 10.1% · won 36% · ±0.0±9.1 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.6% · won 55% · +9.6±10.5 vs own baseline
  2. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 4.0% · won 53% · +7.8±10.1 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 6.6% · won 51% · +5.8±8.7 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 5.7% · won 51% · +5.9±9.1 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 4.0% · won 52% · +6.2±10.2 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Aleksandar Vukic wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH down the line used 1.1% · won 59% · +14.1±11.1 vs own baseline · +18.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Prajnesh Gunneswaran (4/8)
  2. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.8% · won 58% · +13.5±12.1 vs own baseline · +22.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Prajnesh Gunneswaran (6/6)
  3. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 53% · +8.2±13.0 vs own baseline · +7.9 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 52% · +6.9±12.9 vs own baseline · +14.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez (10/16)
  5. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.1% · won 48% · +3.7±11.4 vs own baseline · +5.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Emilio Gomez (3/6), Novak Djokovic (4/8)
  6. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.5% · won 47% · +2.3±10.4 vs own baseline · −0.1 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

T 1st serve · deuce court+2.8260
T 1st serve · ad court+0.6208
FH to their forehand · rally+0.6356
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.5269
FH to the middle · rally+0.1170

Most exposed to

T 1st serve · ad court−4.7130
FH to their forehand · serve +1−2.8139
FH to their backhand · rally−2.7307
FH to the middle · rally−1.9189
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−1.2184

Best-equipped opponents

Active players whose shot mix lines up best against these weaknesses, by structural compatibility per 100 rally shots: Rafael Nadal +2.34, Miomir Kecmanovic +1.94, Jack Draper +1.83, Nishesh Basavareddy +1.73, Roberto Bautista Agut +1.71

Favourable matchups

Miomir Kecmanovic +0.40, Fabian Marozsan +0.29, Pedro Martinez +0.25, Roberto Carballes Baena +0.14, Alexander Shevchenko +0.10

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Reilly Opelka, Milos Raonic, Nick Kyrgios, Nicolas Jarry, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Forehand share61%
Run-around forehands31%
Unforced errors / shot11.3%
Wide serves · ad53%
Through the middle26%
Drop shots / shot2.0%
T serves · ad41%
T serves · deuce47%
Wide serves · deuce44%
FH down the line31%
Point-ending shots24.5%
BH down the line20%
Avg rally length4.0
Backhand slice16%
Deep returns24%
Serve & volley1%
1st serve in59%
Chipped returns9%
Points at net6%

Plays most like

  1. Kyle Edmund 2016–2023 plan v
  2. Thiago Seyboth Wild 2019–2026 plan v
  3. Flavio Cobolli 2022–2026 plan v
  4. Stefanos Tsitsipas 2016–2026 plan v
  5. Marin Cilic 2009–2026 plan v
  6. Zizou Bergs 2021–2026 plan v
  7. J J Wolf 2022–2024 plan v
  8. Philipp Kohlschreiber 2008–2019 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. James Blake 2002–2011
  2. Sebastien Grosjean 1999–2005
  3. Magnus Norman 2000–2001

Charted matches