ITF Manacor · QF · Hard · 5 Feb 2021
Oksana Selekhmeteva v Alexandra Eala
67–48 in points · Oksana Selekhmeteva won
Why it went the way it did
Oksana Selekhmeteva won 8.7 more points than Alexandra Eala relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alexandra Eala's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.8, serve 1st execution −1.3, slice shot selection −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Oksana Selekhmeteva | Alexandra Eala | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.9 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.9 |
| Return | +0.3 | −0.4 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +0.8 | +0.7 | −0.3 | +1.2 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +2.1 | +1.8 | +3.9 | +0.1 | +1.3 | −3.8 | −2.4 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +1.5 | +1.9 | −0.3 | +0.4 | −0.5 | −0.4 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −3.1 | ±0.0 | −2.8 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −0.8 | −1.9 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.6 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.2 | −0.7 | +4.0 | +3.6 | +0.1 | +1.1 | −6.3 | −5.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Oksana Selekhmeteva | Alexandra Eala | Net, Oksana | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.1 | −6.0 | +5.8 | |
| 2 | +3.7 | +0.8 | +2.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Oksana Selekhmeteva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30% 30% | 21% 71% | 48% 75% |
| 2 | 27% 63% | 33% 70% | 40% 58% |
Set to set −0.07 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.63 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Alexandra Eala serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 43% | 50% 33% | 21% 40% |
| 2 | 32% 56% | 39% 55% | 29% 50% |
Within sets −0.09 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Oksana Selekhmeteva
5.5 points left on the table across 240 shots 2.30 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.63 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×7; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
Alexandra Eala
6.4 points left on the table across 239 shots 2.66 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit BH crosscourt ×3; BH inside-out rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×11; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.35 pts