Rotterdam · QF · Hard · 5 Mar 2021
Borna Coric v Kei Nishikori
86–76 in points · Borna Coric won
Why it went the way it did
Borna Coric won 5.5 more points than Kei Nishikori relative to what the serve alone predicted. Kei Nishikori's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.4, serve 1st execution −3.1, slice execution −2.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Borna Coric | Kei Nishikori | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.9 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −3.1 | −3.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.2 | −0.7 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −1.5 | −0.9 | −2.5 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +2.3 | −3.6 | −1.7 | −0.5 | +1.7 | −3.4 | −2.1 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | +0.9 | −2.0 | −1.5 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +0.3 | +1.9 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −3.3 | +0.1 | −3.4 | ±0.0 | −1.8 | −2.0 | −3.8 |
| Net | +0.5 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +1.6 | +0.1 | +0.3 | −1.9 | −1.4 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −1.0 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.1 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.6 |
| All shots | +0.1 | −1.0 | −5.5 | −6.4 | −0.4 | −0.3 | −11.2 | −11.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Borna Coric | Kei Nishikori | Net, Borna | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.4 | −5.1 | +1.7 | |
| 2 | −3.0 | −6.8 | +3.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Borna Coric serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 73% | – | 61% 70% |
| 2 | 62% 75% | – | 38% 60% |
Set to set +0.21 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.51 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Kei Nishikori serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 79% | 3% 0% | 44% 56% |
| 2 | 60% 59% | 10% 20% | 29% 79% |
Set to set +0.28 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets ±0.00 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Borna Coric
6.9 points left on the table across 292 shots 2.36 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drop shot to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
Kei Nishikori
7.6 points left on the table across 275 shots 2.77 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts