Stuttgart · R16 · Clay · 21 Apr 2021
Ashleigh Barty v Laura Siegemund
66–44 in points · Ashleigh Barty won
Why it went the way it did
Ashleigh Barty won 11.1 more points than Laura Siegemund relative to what the serve alone predicted. Laura Siegemund's biggest leaks: forehand execution −8.1, slice shot selection −2.1, backhand execution −2.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Ashleigh Barty | Laura Siegemund | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.6 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.5 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −0.9 |
| Return | +0.1 | −0.5 | +0.2 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.6 | +0.9 | +0.1 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +1.1 | +1.7 | +3.0 | +0.1 | +2.4 | −8.1 | −5.6 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.9 | −2.0 | −0.8 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −4.9 | ±0.0 | −4.6 | −0.1 | −2.1 | −1.0 | −3.2 |
| Net | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −0.1 | +0.3 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.4 | +1.5 | +1.3 | +0.1 | +0.5 | −0.4 | +0.2 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +1.0 | −4.6 | +4.4 | +0.8 | −0.2 | +1.5 | −11.6 | −10.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Ashleigh Barty | Laura Siegemund | Net, Ashleigh | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.8 | −5.1 | +6.9 | |
| 2 | −1.0 | −5.2 | +4.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Ashleigh Barty serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 75% | – | 56% 60% |
| 2 | 36% 54% | 6% 50% | 58% 76% |
Within sets −1.67 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Laura Siegemund serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% 20% | 38% 0% | 31% 60% |
| 2 | 40% 63% | 40% 50% | 20% 50% |
Within sets −0.28 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Ashleigh Barty
4.2 points left on the table across 188 shots 2.22 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drop shot to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Laura Siegemund
4.8 points left on the table across 181 shots 2.66 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts