Almaty CH · F · Clay · 19 Jun 2021
Jesper De Jong v Tomas Barrios Vera
54–29 in points · Jesper De Jong won
Why it went the way it did
Jesper De Jong won 12.0 more points than Tomas Barrios Vera relative to what the serve alone predicted. Tomas Barrios Vera's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.7, net execution −1.4, backhand execution −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jesper De Jong | Tomas Barrios Vera | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| Return | −0.3 | −0.9 | −0.1 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −1.0 |
| Forehand | −0.7 | +1.6 | +3.6 | +4.5 | −0.2 | +1.3 | −2.7 | −1.7 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.1 | +2.4 | +2.4 | +0.3 | −0.7 | −1.1 | −1.5 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 |
| Net | −0.3 | +0.1 | +1.0 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.4 |
| Touch | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.4 | −0.1 | +0.3 | −0.7 | −0.4 |
| Other | −0.1 | −0.8 | +0.5 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.4 |
| All shots | −1.5 | −0.4 | +7.6 | +5.7 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −6.2 | −6.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Jesper De Jong | Tomas Barrios Vera | Net, Jesper | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.0 | −3.2 | +5.1 | |
| 2 | +3.8 | −3.1 | +6.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jesper De Jong serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 60% | 4% 100% | 52% 75% |
| 2 | 33% 83% | 17% 67% | 50% 100% |
Within sets +3.22 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tomas Barrios Vera serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 38% | 5% 100% | 55% 45% |
| 2 | 43% 56% | 24% 80% | 33% 29% |
Within sets −0.28 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jesper De Jong
5.3 points left on the table across 152 shots 3.45 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×2; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
Tomas Barrios Vera
4.2 points left on the table across 159 shots 2.61 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.20 pts