RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 4 charted matches · 2021–2024

Tomas Barrios Vera

Shot expected value

The share of points Tomas Barrios Vera goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 71 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 31% 51.3%±12.7 52.7%
BH crosscourt 24% 42.8%±13.4 49.1%
FH through the middle 15% 49.7%±14.8 47.0%
FH down the line 14% 44.3%±14.9 51.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 64 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 56% 40.2%±10.8 47.6%
BH through the middle 30% 42.9%±13.0 43.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 47 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 49% 56.5%±12.4 46.6%
FH through the middle 26% 41.6%±14.3 41.5%
FH down the line 26% 46.7%±14.5 44.7%

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 35% 38% 62% / 73%
Body 13% 38% ▲ 63% / 63%
T 52% 25% ▼ 70% / 75%

139 normal · 8 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 47% 38% ▼ 69% / 73%
Body 11% 4% 61% / 63%
T 42% 58% ▲ 56% / 72%

106 normal · 26 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide35% 49.8%±9.1 n=52
Body14% 58.8%±11.3 n=21
T50% 55.9%±8.0 n=74

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.30).

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide45% 54.6%±8.6 n=60
Body10% 51.1%±12.5 n=13
T45% 41.0%±8.6 n=59

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.07).

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 6 39% +2.2±13.4
1stAd courtT 31 30% +2.1±9.7
1stAd courtWide 42 29% +2.2±8.8
1stDeuce courtBody 11 39% +2.3±12.5
1stDeuce courtT 48 20% −5.2±7.4
1stDeuce courtWide 28 24% −2.8±9.3
2ndAd courtBody 28 45% −4.9±10.7
2ndAd courtT 11 48% −1.0±12.8
2ndAd courtWide 22 47% −1.2±11.4
2ndDeuce courtBody 20 57% +8.4±11.5
2ndDeuce courtT 31 52% +2.6±10.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 13 52% +4.1±12.5

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Tomas Barrios Vera's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Not enough data

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 32.5% · won 38% · −4.2±10.2 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Tomas Barrios Vera wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 2.3% · won 40% · −1.7±12.7 vs own baseline · −10.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Alvaro Guillen Meza (2/7), Jesper De Jong (2/6)

Charted matches