Wimbledon · R128 · Grass · 30 Jun 2021
Gregoire Barrere v Botic Van De Zandschulp
118–142 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Botic Van De Zandschulp won 11.4 more points than Gregoire Barrere relative to what the serve alone predicted. Gregoire Barrere's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −5.4, serve 1st execution −3.4, net execution −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Gregoire Barrere | Botic Van De Zandschulp | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | −0.2 | −3.4 | −3.8 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −1.2 | −1.5 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.8 | +0.8 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −2.1 | −2.1 |
| Return | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +1.5 | +0.5 | +1.0 | +0.8 | +2.3 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +2.6 | −1.6 | +1.2 | +0.3 | +2.1 | +1.1 | +3.4 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.5 | −1.0 | −0.5 | +0.6 | +4.4 | +4.5 |
| Slice | +0.4 | −5.4 | −1.6 | −6.5 | −0.3 | −4.9 | +0.3 | −4.9 |
| Net | +0.5 | +0.3 | −1.9 | −1.1 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +2.9 | +3.1 |
| Touch | +0.2 | −0.6 | +1.0 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.3 | −1.4 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.4 |
| All shots | +1.4 | −3.4 | −6.5 | −8.4 | −0.2 | −1.6 | +4.7 | +2.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Gregoire Barrere | Botic Van De Zandschulp | Net, Gregoire | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.1 | +2.6 | −5.7 | |
| 2 | −0.8 | −0.2 | −0.7 | |
| 3 | −3.5 | +1.5 | −5.0 | |
| 4 | −1.0 | −1.0 | ±0.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Gregoire Barrere serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65% 53% | 9% 0% | 26% 33% |
| 2 | 46% 79% | 10% 75% | 44% 72% |
| 3 | 63% 42% | 16% 0% | 21% 25% |
| 4 | 52% 71% | 11% 40% | 37% 59% |
Set to set −0.21 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.83 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Botic Van De Zandschulp serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 55% | 9% 100% | 41% 78% |
| 2 | 38% 77% | 9% 67% | 53% 83% |
| 3 | 32% 63% | 8% 50% | 60% 60% |
| 4 | 35% 75% | 11% 40% | 54% 60% |
Set to set −0.54 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.13 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Gregoire Barrere
9.3 points left on the table across 450 shots 2.07 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×7; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.67 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×13; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
Botic Van De Zandschulp
11.9 points left on the table across 473 shots 2.52 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts