RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 12 charted matches · 2016–2024

Gregoire Barrere

Archetype: Rallies through the middle · Crosscourt backhand

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 59.8% ±3.2 raw 57.1% · tour 63.4% · 938 points
Return points won 36.6% ±3.1 raw 33.4% · tour 36.6% · 894 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.05 ±0.14 better than 44% of ATP · raw −0.04
Shot selection −0.39 ±0.18 better than 17% of ATP · raw −0.38
Execution −1.15 ±0.70 better than 21% of ATP · raw −0.95
Tactical adaptability −0.14 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 12 matches
Adaptation speed +0.08 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.65 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 44% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 4,395 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Gregoire Barrere goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 214 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 30% 48.3%±9.0 52.7%
BH through the middle 17% 43.5%±10.9 46.8%
FH down the line 17% 47.0%±11.0 51.5%
FH through the middle 16% 40.7%±10.9 47.0%
BH crosscourt 15% 45.8%±11.4 49.1%
BH down the line 5% 37.6%±14.3 48.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 209 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 45% 40.5%±7.5 47.6%
BH through the middle 31% 41.4%±8.8 43.7%
BH down the line 12% 45.1%±12.2 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 6% 39.1%±14.2 42.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 184 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 42% 35.4%±8.0 46.6%
FH through the middle 23% 35.4%±9.9 41.5%
FH down the line 22% 45.8%±10.5 44.7%
FH slice through the middle 8% 31.2%±12.9 24.5%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 103 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 40% 51.5%±10.5 46.9%
BH through the middle 31% 41.6%±11.2 43.0%
BH down the line 12% 49.5%±14.5 44.2%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +14 How much less varied Gregoire Barrere's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 113 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 49% 65% ▲ 68% / 73%
Body 9% 3% 55% / 63%
T 42% 32% ▼ 64% / 75%

455 normal · 37 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 49% 59% ▲ 70% / 73%
Body 9% 5% 63% / 63%
T 42% 36% 62% / 72%

369 normal · 76 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide50% 59.6%±4.9 n=247 63% ▲
Body9% 51.4%±9.6 n=44 0% ▼
T41% 57.0%±5.4 n=201 37% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.26).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide51% 58.5%±5.1 n=226 64% ▲
Body8% 59.1%±9.9 n=37 3% ▼
T41% 53.6%±5.6 n=182 33% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.43).
Optimal mix: +0.2 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.32 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −1.1±6.7 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (375 repeats, 538 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 17 34% −2.7±11.4
1stAd courtT 107 28% ±0.0±6.3
1stAd courtWide 121 19% −7.9±5.3
1stDeuce courtBody 20 34% −2.7±11.0
1stDeuce courtT 135 23% −1.7±5.4
1stDeuce courtWide 130 25% −2.1±5.6
2ndAd courtBody 76 47% −2.4±8.0
2ndAd courtT 48 48% −0.8±9.3
2ndAd courtWide 56 47% −1.3±8.9
2ndDeuce courtBody 68 49% −0.3±8.3
2ndDeuce courtT 63 53% +2.9±8.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 53 45% −3.0±9.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Gregoire Barrere's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 3.7% · won 61% · −2.8±10.7 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.0% · won 57% · −6.6±11.4 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 4.6% · won 58% · −5.5±10.3 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 3.3% · won 57% · −6.9±11.2 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.5% · won 56% · −7.9±11.1 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle used 11.5% · won 39% · +3.1±10.2 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 8.5% · won 35% · −0.5±10.9 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle used 7.4% · won 30% · −6.4±10.9 vs own baseline
  4. vs T serve (ad court) → FH through the middle used 8.1% · won 26% · −9.4±10.3 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 7.3% · won 47% · +6.1±9.5 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 5.6% · won 46% · +5.6±10.3 vs own baseline
  3. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 3.5% · won 48% · +6.7±11.6 vs own baseline
  4. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 6.9% · won 41% · +0.4±9.5 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 4.9% · won 41% · +0.3±10.5 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Gregoire Barrere wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 50% · +7.9±11.3 vs own baseline · +8.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Otto Virtanen (4/6)
  2. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 1.5% · won 44% · +1.7±10.9 vs own baseline · −8.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Botic Van De Zandschulp (4/7)
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.3% · won 41% · −1.5±11.1 vs own baseline · −7.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jakub Mensik (2/8), Zizou Bergs (2/6)
  4. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 40% · −1.8±11.9 vs own baseline · −6.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Botic Van De Zandschulp (3/7)
  5. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 1.0% · won 40% · −1.8±11.9 vs own baseline · −7.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jakub Mensik (4/9)
  6. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.1% · won 38% · −4.3±11.4 vs own baseline · −11.3 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to the middle · return+2.3161
FH to the middle · return+1.3121
FH to their forehand · rally−0.4280
FH to their backhand · rally−0.5183
T 1st serve · deuce court−0.8201

Most exposed to

FH to their backhand · rally−3.3181
BH to the middle · return−2.8196
T 1st serve · deuce court−2.7230
FH to their forehand · rally−2.3243
Wide 1st serve · ad court−1.9224

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Adrian Andreev, Alex Molcan, Rafael Nadal, Hugo Gaston, Daniel Evans

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Wide serves · deuce50%
Deep returns34%
Unforced errors / shot11.2%
Through the middle27%
T serves · ad41%
FH down the line31%
Drop shots / shot1.7%
Chipped returns17%
Wide serves · ad51%
Forehand share53%
Point-ending shots23.9%
BH down the line19%
Avg rally length3.8
1st serve in60%
Points at net10%
Backhand slice17%
Serve & volley2%
T serves · deuce41%
Run-around forehands7%

Plays most like

  1. Alexander Shevchenko 2023–2026 plan v
  2. Roman Safiullin 2017–2025 plan v
  3. Laslo Djere 2018–2026 plan v
  4. Alexandre Muller 2023–2025 plan v
  5. Jakub Mensik 2022–2026 plan v
  6. Karen Khachanov 2015–2026 plan v
  7. Rinky Hijikata 2023–2026 plan v
  8. Fabio Fognini 2012–2025 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Thomas Johansson 1996–2005
  2. Yevgeny Kafelnikov 1994–2002
  3. Andrei Pavel 1999–2006

Charted matches