ITF The Hague · F · Clay · 4 Jul 2021
Javier Barranco Cosano v Jelle Sels
88–71 in points · Javier Barranco Cosano won
Why it went the way it did
Javier Barranco Cosano won 10.7 more points than Jelle Sels relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jelle Sels's biggest leaks: forehand execution −8.4, slice shot selection −5.9, return execution −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Javier Barranco Cosano | Jelle Sels | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.6 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +1.3 |
| Return | −0.2 | −2.3 | +1.7 | −0.7 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −1.9 | −2.0 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +1.3 | +0.7 | +1.6 | −1.0 | +2.9 | −8.4 | −6.5 |
| Backhand | −1.0 | −1.1 | +0.5 | −1.6 | −0.7 | −0.9 | +0.1 | −1.4 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −3.8 | −0.6 | −4.5 | −0.7 | −5.9 | −0.5 | −7.0 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.9 | +1.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | −0.3 | −1.0 | −1.0 | −2.4 | −0.4 | +0.6 | −0.5 | −0.3 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 |
| All shots | −1.9 | −7.0 | +3.1 | −5.9 | −3.1 | −3.6 | −10.0 | −16.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Javier Barranco Cosano | Jelle Sels | Net, Javier | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −8.0 | −2.6 | −5.5 | |
| 2 | +4.1 | −3.9 | +8.0 | |
| 3 | −2.0 | −10.2 | +8.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Javier Barranco Cosano serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 42% | 10% 67% | 50% 53% |
| 2 | 38% 100% | 13% 67% | 50% 58% |
| 3 | 20% 67% | 7% 100% | 73% 82% |
Set to set −0.73 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.45 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jelle Sels serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 67% | 12% 67% | 42% 73% |
| 2 | 46% 55% | 13% 33% | 42% 30% |
| 3 | 55% 52% | 8% 33% | 37% 43% |
Set to set +0.39 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.11 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Javier Barranco Cosano
10.3 points left on the table across 368 shots 2.79 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×14; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.80 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×17; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
Jelle Sels
12.0 points left on the table across 372 shots 3.22 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.94 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×9; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.63 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.57 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.48 pts