RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 8 charted matches · 2018–2025

Jelle Sels

Archetype: Avoids the wide serve · Ad-court slider

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 62.4% ±3.6 raw 60.5% · tour 63.4% · 559 points
Return points won 35.5% ±3.6 raw 34.9% · tour 36.6% · 525 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.18 ±0.19 better than 18% of ATP · raw −0.17
Shot selection −0.18 ±0.39 better than 31% of ATP · raw −0.15
Execution −2.18 ±0.42 better than 2% of ATP · raw −1.69
Points left on the table 2.84 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 28% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,044 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Jelle Sels goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 229 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 24% 53.4%±9.5 47.6%
FH inside-out 20% 48.3%±10.2 51.8%
BH through the middle 19% 49.6%±10.3 43.7%
BH slice through the middle 7% 35.2%±12.9 35.1%
FH inside-in 7% 51.2%±13.5 54.7%
BH down the line 7% 39.7%±13.4 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 7% 37.5%±13.3 42.5%
BH slice down the line 5% 46.5%±14.7 37.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 134 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 38% 46.9%±9.7 51.5%
FH crosscourt 22% 45.1%±11.6 52.7%
FH through the middle 19% 45.3%±12.2 47.0%
BH through the middle 10% 48.1%±14.1 46.8%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 116 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 26% 47.5%±11.6 43.8%
BH crosscourt 26% 53.2%±11.6 48.0%
FH inside-out 18% 54.9%±12.8 52.6%
BH slice crosscourt 17% 48.6%±13.0 42.1%
BH slice through the middle 13% 37.2%±13.4 35.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 112 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 41% 49.0%±10.1 46.6%
FH through the middle 28% 45.7%±11.5 41.5%
FH down the line 13% 44.0%±14.0 44.7%
FH slice through the middle 13% 17.4%±10.7 24.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +3 How much less varied Jelle Sels's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 52 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 39% 53% ▲ 63% / 73%
Body 12% 7% 65% / 63%
T 49% 40% ▼ 64% / 75%

262 normal · 15 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 65% 59% 70% / 73%
Body 12% 8% 60% / 63%
T 23% 32% ▲ 71% / 72%

224 normal · 37 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide40% 59.6%±6.8 n=110 38% ▼
Body12% 64.7%±10.0 n=32 0% ▼
T49% 62.5%±6.2 n=135 62% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.63).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide64% 59.6%±5.8 n=167 62% ▼
Body11% 54.1%±10.6 n=30 0% ▼
T25% 60.8%±8.3 n=64 38% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.49).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.49 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +1.1±6.3 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (233 repeats, 289 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 16 37% +0.2±11.7
1stAd courtT 49 28% +0.3±8.3
1stAd courtWide 93 27% −0.3±6.6
1stDeuce courtBody 26 32% −4.5±10.3
1stDeuce courtT 97 28% +2.9±6.6
1stDeuce courtWide 54 24% −3.2±7.7
2ndAd courtBody 28 53% +3.7±10.8
2ndAd courtT 12 49% +0.2±12.7
2ndAd courtWide 44 49% +1.0±9.6
2ndDeuce courtBody 33 49% −0.3±10.4
2ndDeuce courtT 40 44% −5.5±9.8
2ndDeuce courtWide 22 49% +0.8±11.4

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Jelle Sels's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 6.9% · won 54% · −9.1±11.7 vs own baseline

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH down the line → FH inside-out used 5.6% · won 53% · +1.5±11.8 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 7.6% · won 50% · −1.5±10.9 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 6.2% · won 49% · −2.5±11.5 vs own baseline
  4. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 7.0% · won 48% · −3.3±11.1 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Jelle Sels wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 49% · +0.8±12.6 vs own baseline · +1.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jozef Kovalik (3/6)
  2. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH down the line used 1.0% · won 43% · −5.6±12.9 vs own baseline · −19.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jozef Kovalik (3/6)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

T 1st serve · deuce court−0.9135
FH to their forehand · rally−1.1180
Wide 1st serve · ad court−1.2167
FH to their backhand · rally−2.0292
FH to their backhand · serve +1−2.7141

Most exposed to

FH to their backhand · rally+0.2216
T 1st serve · deuce court+0.9148
Wide 1st serve · ad court+1.5149
BH to their backhand · rally+2.6144
FH to their forehand · rally+3.5170

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Adrian Andreev, Alex Molcan, Rafael Nadal, Hugo Gaston, Daniel Evans

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Run-around forehands46%
Forehand share65%
Wide serves · ad64%
Deep returns35%
Avg rally length4.6
Chipped returns25%
Backhand slice33%
Drop shots / shot2.2%
T serves · deuce49%
Points at net14%
1st serve in62%
Through the middle26%
Unforced errors / shot10.1%
FH down the line30%
Serve & volley3%
Point-ending shots21.5%
Wide serves · deuce40%
BH down the line11%
T serves · ad25%

Plays most like

  1. Nicolas Massu 2000–2009 plan v
  2. Juncheng Shang 2024–2026 plan v
  3. Radu Albot 2016–2024 plan v
  4. Daniel Elahi Galan 2020–2025 plan v
  5. Luciano Darderi 2022–2026 plan v
  6. Tommy Robredo 2003–2022 plan v
  7. Dusan Lajovic 2014–2025 plan v
  8. Philipp Kohlschreiber 2008–2019 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Nicolas Massu 2000–2009
  2. Albert Costa 1996–2002
  3. Carlos Moya 1997–2007

Charted matches