Gdynia · R32 · Clay · 19 Jul 2021
Kateryna Bondarenko v Weronika Falkowska
27–58 in points · Weronika Falkowska won
Why it went the way it did
Weronika Falkowska won 16.0 more points than Kateryna Bondarenko relative to what the serve alone predicted. Kateryna Bondarenko's biggest leaks: backhand execution −3.9, return execution −2.3, forehand execution −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Kateryna Bondarenko | Weronika Falkowska | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.4 |
| Return | −0.2 | −0.1 | −2.3 | −2.6 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.9 | +1.1 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +0.6 | −1.1 | −0.7 | −0.4 | +0.9 | +0.3 | +0.8 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −3.9 | −4.1 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.8 | +1.3 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +0.3 | −0.3 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +1.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.5 |
| All shots | −0.5 | +0.1 | −9.6 | −10.1 | −0.2 | +1.5 | +4.7 | +5.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Kateryna Bondarenko | Weronika Falkowska | Net, Kateryna | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.0 | +4.8 | −9.8 | |
| 2 | −5.1 | +1.1 | −6.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Kateryna Bondarenko serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 25% | 20% 20% | 32% 63% |
| 2 | 29% 83% | 33% 29% | 38% 0% |
Within sets +0.72 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Weronika Falkowska serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 100% | 36% 100% | 18% 100% |
| 2 | 50% 69% | 12% 33% | 38% 60% |
Within sets −1.67 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Kateryna Bondarenko
3.6 points left on the table across 115 shots 3.16 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.17 pts
Weronika Falkowska
3.1 points left on the table across 115 shots 2.74 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit BH through the middle ×3; BH down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts