RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 5 charted matches · 2015–2021

Kateryna Bondarenko

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 53.0% ±4.0 raw 48.5% · tour 56.3% · 367 points
Return points won 41.8% ±4.0 raw 38.7% · tour 43.7% · 372 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Shot expected value

The share of points Kateryna Bondarenko goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 146 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 24% 47.6%±11.1 50.9%
FH crosscourt 18% 46.8%±12.1 52.7%
FH down the line 18% 46.6%±12.1 52.2%
FH through the middle 16% 54.9%±12.3 45.8%
BH down the line 16% 44.2%±12.5 50.0%
BH through the middle 8% 50.8%±14.5 46.2%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 94 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 22% 56.6%±12.7 46.0%
BH crosscourt 20% 46.6%±13.1 50.8%
FH crosscourt 19% 54.1%±13.3 52.8%
BH through the middle 17% 50.7%±13.7 46.3%
FH down the line 12% 47.2%±14.7 53.1%

Return +1: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 76 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 26% 50.4%±13.0 50.8%
FH crosscourt 22% 49.9%±13.5 52.3%
BH down the line 16% 50.4%±14.5 50.6%
FH down the line 16% 51.9%±14.5 53.0%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 70 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 56% 34.8%±10.2 47.6%
BH through the middle 31% 37.3%±12.3 43.3%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +14 How much less varied Kateryna Bondarenko's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 50 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 35% 23% ▼ 57% / 66%
Body 13% 15% 51% / 57%
T 51% 62% ▲ 67% / 68%

178 normal · 13 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 55% 62% 59% / 66%
Body 17% 5% ▼ 55% / 56%
T 27% 32% 64% / 64%

139 normal · 37 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide35% 46.8%±8.4 n=66
Body14% 45.0%±10.9 n=26
T52% 48.3%±7.2 n=99

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.85).

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide57% 48.2%±7.2 n=100
Body15% 53.2%±11.0 n=26
T28% 50.6%±9.2 n=50

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.66).

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −17.2±8.7 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (151 repeats, 206 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 30 44% −0.3±10.5
1stAd courtT 38 36% +0.7±9.6
1stAd courtWide 46 29% −5.1±8.6
1stDeuce courtBody 19 42% −0.2±11.6
1stDeuce courtT 36 31% −0.9±9.4
1stDeuce courtWide 67 26% −8.0±7.3
2ndAd courtBody 43 50% −5.0±9.6
2ndAd courtT 7 61% +5.8±13.2
2ndAd courtWide 16 52% −1.2±12.1
2ndDeuce courtBody 31 48% −6.4±10.5
2ndDeuce courtT 27 63% +6.8±10.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 12 50% −3.5±12.7

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Kateryna Bondarenko's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Not enough data

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 7.2% · won 49% · +3.7±11.5 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 6.9% · won 48% · +2.7±11.6 vs own baseline
  3. FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 7.2% · won 48% · +1.8±11.5 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 7.5% · won 39% · −6.6±11.1 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 9.5% · won 33% · −12.3±10.2 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Kateryna Bondarenko wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.7% · won 43% · −1.3±12.6 vs own baseline · −7.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Elina Svitolina (5/11)
  2. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.8% · won 42% · −2.3±12.4 vs own baseline · −9.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Elina Svitolina (4/8)
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 2.0% · won 34% · −10.8±11.6 vs own baseline · −27.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Arina Rodionova (0/7), Madison Keys (2/6)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to their backhand · rally−3.3139

Most exposed to

Charted matches