Cincinnati Masters · R64 · Hard · 17 Aug 2021
Marin Cilic v Aslan Karatsev
79–65 in points · Marin Cilic won
Why it went the way it did
Marin Cilic won 10.3 more points than Aslan Karatsev relative to what the serve alone predicted. Aslan Karatsev's biggest leaks: forehand execution −5.3, backhand execution −5.2, return execution −4.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Marin Cilic | Aslan Karatsev | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −2.1 | −2.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.8 | −1.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.8 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.7 | −2.8 | −2.1 | −0.1 | +0.5 | −4.7 | −4.3 |
| Forehand | −1.0 | +1.4 | −1.4 | −1.0 | −2.1 | +1.3 | −5.3 | −6.0 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | −0.3 | −2.4 | −3.1 | −0.6 | −1.2 | −5.2 | −7.1 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.5 | −0.6 | −2.3 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.4 | −1.0 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.4 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.3 |
| All shots | −1.3 | −0.4 | −9.7 | −11.4 | −3.2 | −0.2 | −18.4 | −21.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Marin Cilic | Aslan Karatsev | Net, Marin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −7.3 | −9.9 | +2.6 | |
| 2 | −4.1 | −11.8 | +7.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Marin Cilic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 53% | 3% 0% | 56% 80% |
| 2 | 48% 67% | – | 52% 92% |
Set to set −2.07 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.90 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Aslan Karatsev serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% 57% | 10% 75% | 33% 62% |
| 2 | 35% 47% | 16% 86% | 49% 52% |
Set to set +1.13 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.93 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Marin Cilic
6.0 points left on the table across 205 shots 2.92 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.74 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Aslan Karatsev
7.6 points left on the table across 195 shots 3.89 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×19; FH crosscourt rates higher · 2.36 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×12; BH crosscourt rates higher · 1.03 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts