Cincinnati · R16 · Hard · 19 Aug 2021
Victoria Azarenka v Ashleigh Barty
40–61 in points · Ashleigh Barty won
Why it went the way it did
Ashleigh Barty won 10.4 more points than Victoria Azarenka relative to what the serve alone predicted. Victoria Azarenka's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.7, slice shot selection −1.6, slice execution −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Victoria Azarenka | Ashleigh Barty | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +1.0 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +2.2 | +2.6 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.6 |
| Return | +0.1 | −0.7 | +0.4 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.9 | +2.6 | +0.7 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +1.2 | −3.7 | −2.6 | +0.5 | +1.4 | +3.5 | +5.4 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.1 | +0.4 | −0.8 | −0.5 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.6 | −1.6 | −3.1 | +0.2 | −4.9 | +1.3 | −3.5 |
| Net | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +0.7 | +0.8 |
| Touch | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −1.1 |
| All shots | +0.3 | −1.2 | −5.9 | −6.7 | +0.9 | −5.3 | +8.2 | +3.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Victoria Azarenka | Ashleigh Barty | Net, Victoria | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.4 | +1.6 | −6.0 | |
| 2 | −2.3 | +2.1 | −4.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Victoria Azarenka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 44% | 20% 25% | 35% 29% |
| 2 | 43% 46% | 17% 20% | 40% 67% |
Within sets −1.23 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Ashleigh Barty serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 64% | – | 45% 67% |
| 2 | 42% 69% | – | 58% 61% |
Within sets −1.37 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Victoria Azarenka
4.4 points left on the table across 182 shots 2.42 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return +1: slice to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH down the line rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Ashleigh Barty
5.2 points left on the table across 190 shots 2.72 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice through the middle ×8; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts