ITF Santarem · R16 · Hard · 23 Sep 2021
Tatjana Maria v Pemra Ozgen
91–83 in points · Pemra Ozgen won
Why it went the way it did
Tatjana Maria won 4.6 more points than Pemra Ozgen relative to what the serve alone predicted. Pemra Ozgen's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −6.0, forehand execution −4.5, return shot selection −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Tatjana Maria | Pemra Ozgen | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +2.2 | +2.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +1.4 |
| Return | +0.5 | −5.0 | +5.4 | +1.0 | −0.6 | −1.1 | +0.3 | −1.4 |
| Forehand | +0.6 | +3.9 | −2.0 | +2.5 | +0.3 | +1.7 | −4.5 | −2.5 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +0.7 | +0.5 | +0.9 | +0.5 | −0.2 | +0.8 | +1.2 |
| Slice | +0.8 | −22.2 | +10.7 | −10.7 | −0.2 | −6.0 | +1.1 | −5.2 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.3 | +1.3 | +1.4 | −0.6 | +1.7 | −0.5 | +0.5 |
| Touch | +0.7 | −0.4 | +1.7 | +1.9 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +0.9 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| All shots | +2.4 | −22.7 | +19.4 | −0.9 | −0.3 | −4.3 | −0.9 | −5.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Tatjana Maria | Pemra Ozgen | Net, Tatjana | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.5 | −2.7 | +4.1 | |
| 2 | −0.1 | −1.0 | +0.9 | |
| 3 | −2.2 | −1.8 | −0.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Tatjana Maria serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 40% | – | 64% 56% |
| 2 | 41% 69% | 9% 67% | 50% 56% |
| 3 | 52% 58% | 13% 33% | 35% 63% |
Set to set +0.77 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.26 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Pemra Ozgen serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 88% 29% | – | 13% 0% |
| 2 | 54% 50% | 14% 60% | 32% 75% |
| 3 | 45% 50% | 19% 83% | 35% 55% |
Set to set +1.73 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.43 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Tatjana Maria
12.2 points left on the table across 403 shots 3.03 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×10; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.87 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×12; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.72 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×9; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.58 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×8; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.48 pts
Pemra Ozgen
12.6 points left on the table across 415 shots 3.03 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×12; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.63 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH slice down the line ×4; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Serve +1: slice to your backhand side hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts