Paris Masters · SF · Hard · 6 Nov 2021
Hubert Hurkacz v Novak Djokovic
84–97 in points · Novak Djokovic won
Why it went the way it did
Novak Djokovic won 10.5 more points than Hubert Hurkacz relative to what the serve alone predicted. Hubert Hurkacz's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.2, return execution −3.6, backhand execution −2.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Hubert Hurkacz | Novak Djokovic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | −0.2 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −2.7 | −2.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.1 | −3.6 | −3.4 | +0.3 | −0.3 | −2.0 | −2.0 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +2.6 | −0.9 | +1.5 | +1.2 | +2.9 | +3.0 | +7.2 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +1.2 | −2.7 | −1.6 | +0.6 | +0.7 | +1.8 | +3.1 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −4.2 | +1.3 | −3.1 | +0.6 | −4.1 | +2.9 | −0.7 |
| Net | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +1.1 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +1.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.7 | −1.2 | −0.2 | −1.2 | +0.4 | −1.1 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.3 | −0.8 |
| All shots | +0.2 | −1.0 | −5.3 | −6.1 | +3.0 | −1.9 | +3.3 | +4.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Hubert Hurkacz | Novak Djokovic | Net, Hubert | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.5 | −0.7 | +0.2 | |
| 2 | −5.5 | +2.1 | −7.6 | |
| 3 | −0.1 | +3.0 | −3.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Hubert Hurkacz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% 78% | 3% 100% | 41% 54% |
| 2 | 60% 33% | 5% 0% | 35% 43% |
| 3 | 65% 56% | 2% 100% | 33% 71% |
Set to set +0.88 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.77 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Novak Djokovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 73% | – | 45% 67% |
| 2 | 56% 67% | – | 44% 86% |
| 3 | 68% 68% | – | 32% 69% |
Set to set −0.64 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.01 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Hubert Hurkacz
10.3 points left on the table across 429 shots 2.41 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.61 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×4; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.55 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
Novak Djokovic
6.9 points left on the table across 424 shots 1.63 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×2; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts