Stockholm · R32 · Hard · 8 Nov 2021
Andrea Vavassori v Pavel Kotov
62–45 in points · Andrea Vavassori won
Why it went the way it did
Andrea Vavassori won 9.5 more points than Pavel Kotov relative to what the serve alone predicted. Pavel Kotov's biggest leaks: return execution −6.1, forehand execution −3.3, serve 1st execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Andrea Vavassori | Pavel Kotov | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.5 | +1.6 | −1.2 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −2.1 | −2.4 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | +0.8 | +0.1 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.7 |
| Return | +0.1 | −1.4 | −2.2 | −3.5 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | −6.1 | −5.3 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +0.6 | +2.0 | −0.8 | +1.2 | −3.3 | −2.8 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.6 | −1.3 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | −0.3 | +0.4 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −2.2 | +0.3 | −1.7 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.4 | −1.4 |
| Net | +0.8 | −0.5 | −2.1 | −1.8 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.9 | −0.6 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.2 | −1.0 |
| All shots | +0.5 | +0.3 | −5.2 | −4.4 | −0.9 | +0.9 | −13.9 | −13.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Andrea Vavassori | Pavel Kotov | Net, Andrea | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.6 | −7.2 | +5.7 | |
| 2 | −2.8 | −6.7 | +3.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Andrea Vavassori serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 71% | 13% 100% | 58% 86% |
| 2 | 17% 75% | 26% 50% | 57% 77% |
Within sets +0.30 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Pavel Kotov serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 60% | 16% 50% | 44% 64% |
| 2 | 48% 71% | 14% 25% | 38% 45% |
Within sets +1.08 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Andrea Vavassori
5.4 points left on the table across 164 shots 3.28 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.22 pts
Pavel Kotov
6.0 points left on the table across 156 shots 3.82 per 100 shots
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts