RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 6 charted matches · 2021–2025

Andrea Vavassori

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 62.8% ±3.9 raw 56.0% · tour 63.4% · 341 points
Return points won 34.5% ±3.9 raw 30.7% · tour 36.6% · 319 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Shot expected value

The share of points Andrea Vavassori goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 99 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 21% 35.4%±12.3 42.5%
FH inside-in 15% 45.5%±13.8 54.7%
BH slice through the middle 14% 26.6%±12.5 35.1%
FH inside-out 14% 48.1%±14.1 51.8%
BH crosscourt 12% 45.4%±14.5 47.6%
BH slice down the line 10% 24.7%±13.0 37.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 41 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 34% 27.3%±12.6 41.5%
FH down the line 29% 46.7%±14.5 44.7%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +8 How much less varied Andrea Vavassori's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 41 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 33% 38% 70% / 73%
Body 11% 0% ▼ 63% / 63%
T 55% 63% 66% / 75%

166 normal · 8 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 63% 73% ▲ 66% / 73%
Body 3% 9% 55% / 63%
T 34% 18% ▼ 66% / 72%

127 normal · 33 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide33% 59.1%±8.6 n=58
Body11% 56.5%±11.6 n=19
T56% 59.1%±7.2 n=97

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.86).

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide65% 56.2%±7.1 n=104
Body4% 46.7%±13.5 n=7
T31% 50.9%±9.3 n=49

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.12).

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −5.1±11.6 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (148 repeats, 174 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 14 39% +1.9±12.1
1stAd courtT 39 28% +0.1±8.9
1stAd courtWide 50 28% +0.5±8.2
1stDeuce courtBody 18 33% −3.4±11.2
1stDeuce courtT 43 23% −2.4±8.1
1stDeuce courtWide 61 25% −1.7±7.5
2ndAd courtBody 9 48% −1.1±13.2
2ndAd courtT 13 39% −10.2±12.2
2ndAd courtWide 29 45% −3.4±10.7
2ndDeuce courtBody 12 52% +2.7±12.7
2ndDeuce courtT 13 51% +1.3±12.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 18 43% −5.5±11.7

Charted matches