Australian Open · R128 · Hard · 17 Jan 2022

Federico Delbonis v Pedro Martinez

138–148 in points · Pedro Martinez won

Why it went the way it did

Pedro Martinez won 5.3 more points than Federico Delbonis relative to what the serve alone predicted. Federico Delbonis's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.2, return execution −2.9, forehand execution −2.5.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

Shot	Federico Delbonis				Pedro Martinez
Shot	Dir	Sel	Exec	Total	Dir	Sel	Exec	Total
Serve 1st	−0.5	−0.2	−2.0	−2.7	−0.5	+0.1	−2.8	−3.2
Serve 2nd	±0.0	−0.1	−0.6	−0.7	±0.0	−0.1	−0.7	−0.7
Return	−0.4	+1.2	−2.9	−2.1	−0.3	+0.2	+2.0	+1.8
Forehand	−0.4	+4.7	−2.5	+1.8	−0.4	+4.0	+3.8	+7.5
Backhand	−2.1	+0.5	+1.2	−0.4	−1.4	+2.7	−2.3	−1.0
Slice	−0.2	−4.2	−1.0	−5.4	+0.2	−7.6	+1.9	−5.5
Net	±0.0	+0.4	+1.9	+2.4	−0.6	+0.6	+1.4	+1.4
Touch	±0.0	−0.8	+0.5	−0.3	+0.1	−0.6	−1.9	−2.4
Other	±0.0	±0.0	±0.0	±0.0	±0.0	−0.1	+0.1	±0.0
All shots	−3.6	+1.6	−5.3	−7.3	−2.8	−0.7	+1.4	−2.0

Set by set

Set	Federico Delbonis	Pedro Martinez	Net, Federico
1	−3.5	−3.5	−0.1
2	+2.9	−3.0	+6.0
3	−4.2	+1.6	−5.8
4	−2.5	+2.9	−5.3

Adaptation

First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.

Federico Delbonis serving

Set	Wide	Body	T
1	41% 54%	16% 89%	43% 52%
2	42% 60%	8% 50%	50% 75%
3	45% 53%	16% 67%	39% 60%
4	38% 33%	17% 50%	46% 36%

Set to set +0.36 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −0.04 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Pedro Martinez serving

Set	Wide	Body	T
1	49% 67%	8% 40%	43% 54%
2	44% 33%	19% 40%	37% 60%
3	45% 85%	14% 25%	41% 83%
4	32% 25%	40% 70%	28% 86%

Set to set −1.29 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −0.67 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Federico Delbonis

19.8 points left on the table across 590 shots 3.35 per 100 shots

Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×9; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.95 pts
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×19; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.74 pts
Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×7; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.73 pts
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.57 pts

Pedro Martinez

16.8 points left on the table across 590 shots 2.84 per 100 shots

Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.74 pts
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×13; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×15; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.58 pts
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts