RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 30 charted matches · 2019–2026

Pedro Martinez

Archetype: Avoids the wide serve · Ad-court slider

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 61.3% ±2.8 raw 58.3% · tour 63.4% · 2,342 points
Return points won 36.2% ±2.8 raw 34.6% · tour 36.6% · 2,257 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.06 ±0.08 better than 43% of ATP · raw −0.05
Shot selection −0.06 ±0.23 better than 46% of ATP · raw −0.05
Execution +0.23 ±0.43 better than 77% of ATP · raw +0.41
Tactical adaptability −0.11 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 30 matches
Adaptation speed −0.11 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.66 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 43% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 12,565 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Pedro Martinez goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 939 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 35% 53.1%±4.4 47.6%
BH through the middle 20% 37.4%±5.6 43.7%
BH slice crosscourt 13% 47.6%±6.8 42.5%
BH down the line 11% 55.1%±7.4 46.4%
BH slice through the middle 8% 38.3%±8.2 35.1%
FH inside-out 4% 64.5%±10.1 51.8%
BH slice down the line 3% 37.3%±12.0 37.1%
FH inside-in 2% 57.0%±12.6 54.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 651 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 34% 48.3%±5.3 46.6%
FH through the middle 29% 44.8%±5.7 41.5%
FH down the line 20% 45.6%±6.7 44.7%
FH slice through the middle 6% 21.2%±8.6 24.5%
FH slice crosscourt 4% 26.5%±10.7 30.9%
FH drop shot down the line 2% 39.8%±13.6 49.6%
FH down the line + approach 2% 72.9%±13.4 69.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 630 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 22% 56.2%±6.5 51.5%
FH crosscourt 19% 53.2%±6.9 52.7%
FH through the middle 15% 52.1%±7.7 47.0%
BH through the middle 11% 47.5%±8.8 46.8%
BH crosscourt 9% 44.6%±9.3 49.1%
BH slice through the middle 5% 30.1%±10.4 44.8%
BH slice crosscourt 5% 38.8%±11.3 47.0%
BH down the line 4% 51.4%±12.1 48.3%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 515 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 34% 54.7%±5.9 48.0%
BH through the middle 19% 52.3%±7.5 43.8%
BH slice crosscourt 17% 38.5%±7.8 42.1%
BH down the line 10% 57.2%±9.5 46.5%
BH slice through the middle 7% 37.1%±10.8 35.1%
BH slice down the line 5% 35.9%±11.8 35.8%
FH inside-in 3% 48.2%±13.9 54.3%
FH inside-out 2% 59.8%±14.5 52.6%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +1 How much less varied Pedro Martinez's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 248 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 41% 40% 65% / 73%
Body 11% 8% 59% / 63%
T 48% 52% 68% / 75%

1,154 normal · 62 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 54% 53% 63% / 73%
Body 16% 16% 59% / 63%
T 30% 31% 62% / 72%

939 normal · 186 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide41% 59.0%±3.5 n=496 39% ▼
Body11% 57.3%±6.3 n=135 0% ▼
T48% 61.5%±3.2 n=585 61% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.47).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide54% 56.3%±3.2 n=610 54%
Body16% 54.5%±5.7 n=178 3% ▼
T30% 58.3%±4.2 n=337 43% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.61).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.38 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +1.6±3.5 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (855 repeats, 1,426 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 78 44% +6.6±7.8
1stAd courtT 263 27% −1.3±4.3
1stAd courtWide 327 29% +1.4±3.9
1stDeuce courtBody 82 30% −6.3±7.1
1stDeuce courtT 346 24% −1.0±3.6
1stDeuce courtWide 353 25% −2.3±3.6
2ndAd courtBody 129 48% −1.7±6.5
2ndAd courtT 59 53% +3.3±8.7
2ndAd courtWide 216 45% −3.0±5.2
2ndDeuce courtBody 147 49% ±0.0±6.2
2ndDeuce courtT 168 50% +0.3±5.8
2ndDeuce courtWide 82 49% +0.5±7.8

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Pedro Martinez's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 2.6% · won 66% · +4.1±8.8 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.5% · won 61% · −1.5±9.1 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.2% · won 59% · −3.5±9.6 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 4.0% · won 59% · −2.8±7.8 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.2% · won 58% · −4.1±8.5 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 5.4% · won 47% · +8.8±7.9 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, deep used 2.9% · won 50% · +11.7±9.9 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 4.7% · won 46% · +8.0±8.3 vs own baseline
  4. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH down the line, mid used 2.1% · won 47% · +8.3±10.7 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, short used 2.9% · won 41% · +3.0±9.7 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 2.8% · won 62% · +12.7±7.9 vs own baseline
  2. FH down the line → FH down the line used 1.3% · won 60% · +10.8±10.2 vs own baseline
  3. BH down the line → FH down the line used 1.2% · won 61% · +11.5±10.5 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 2.4% · won 57% · +7.9±8.6 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.8% · won 57% · +7.9±9.4 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Pedro Martinez wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 60% · +11.0±7.9 vs own baseline · +14.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Gael Monfils (3/6), Hubert Hurkacz (5/7)
  2. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → FH inside-out used 0.4% · won 60% · +11.1±11.2 vs own baseline · +18.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Maks Kasnikowski (7/8)
  3. Wide serve → BH crosscourt return, mid → BH crosscourt used 0.4% · won 60% · +10.7±11.5 vs own baseline · +21.5 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. BH through the middle → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.5% · won 58% · +8.5±10.9 vs own baseline · +17.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Hubert Hurkacz (3/7)
  5. T serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH down the line used 0.4% · won 58% · +8.6±11.6 vs own baseline · +13.1 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.9% · won 54% · +5.3±8.8 vs own baseline · +7.7 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to their forehand · rally+3.9294
FH to the middle · rally+3.5454
BH to their forehand · serve +1+3.3128
FH to the middle · return +1+3.1137
FH to their forehand · rally+2.6687

Most exposed to

FH to their forehand · return−3.4207
BH to the middle · return−3.3548
BH to their backhand · return−2.9457
T 1st serve · ad court−2.7397
BH to their forehand · rally−2.3316

Best-equipped opponents

Active players whose shot mix lines up best against these weaknesses, by structural compatibility per 100 rally shots: Rafael Nadal +3.05, Jack Draper +2.72, Miomir Kecmanovic +2.62, Nishesh Basavareddy +2.57, Casper Ruud +2.39

Favourable matchups

Miomir Kecmanovic +2.45, Fabian Marozsan +2.42, Roberto Carballes Baena +2.33, Roberto Bautista Agut +2.30, Alexander Shevchenko +2.21

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Tomas Machac, Andrey Rublev, Alexei Popyrin, Daniil Medvedev, Novak Djokovic

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Drop shots / shot3.7%
1st serve in67%
Avg rally length4.6
Through the middle28%
Backhand slice31%
Deep returns32%
Wide serves · ad54%
T serves · deuce48%
FH down the line32%
Points at net14%
BH down the line21%
Run-around forehands19%
Forehand share53%
Chipped returns12%
Serve & volley3%
Wide serves · deuce41%
Point-ending shots19.5%
T serves · ad30%
Unforced errors / shot6.9%

Plays most like

  1. Lorenzo Musetti 2019–2026 plan v
  2. Pablo Andujar 2013–2023 plan v
  3. Novak Djokovic 2005–2026 plan v
  4. Roberto Bautista Agut 2013–2026 plan v
  5. Gaston Gaudio 2002–2005 plan v
  6. Robin Haase 2012–2024 plan v
  7. Marton Fucsovics 2018–2026 plan v
  8. Nuno Borges 2021–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Gaston Gaudio 2002–2005
  2. Guillermo Coria 2002–2005
  3. Juan Carlos Ferrero 2000–2009

Charted matches