ITF Prague · F · Clay · 8 May 2022
Maja Chwalinska v Ekaterine Gorgodze
73–58 in points · Maja Chwalinska won
Why it went the way it did
Maja Chwalinska won 7.6 more points than Ekaterine Gorgodze relative to what the serve alone predicted. Ekaterine Gorgodze's biggest leaks: forehand execution −5.7, touch execution −2.7, backhand execution −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Maja Chwalinska | Ekaterine Gorgodze | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.9 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −0.5 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.4 | +4.1 | +4.3 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +1.5 | +2.0 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.6 | −1.4 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +2.5 | −5.7 | −2.6 |
| Backhand | +0.6 | +0.2 | +2.1 | +3.0 | +0.3 | +0.1 | −1.9 | −1.5 |
| Slice | −0.4 | −8.2 | +3.6 | −5.0 | +0.1 | −0.5 | +0.7 | +0.3 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.5 | +1.3 |
| Touch | −0.3 | +0.4 | +1.5 | +1.6 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −2.7 | −3.1 |
| All shots | −1.3 | −5.5 | +11.4 | +4.6 | +0.5 | +2.8 | −6.3 | −3.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Maja Chwalinska | Ekaterine Gorgodze | Net, Maja | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.2 | −0.7 | +2.9 | |
| 2 | +2.3 | −2.3 | +4.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Maja Chwalinska serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10% 67% | 58% 67% | 32% 80% |
| 2 | 24% 44% | 53% 55% | 24% 67% |
Set to set −0.48 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.14 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Ekaterine Gorgodze serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 55% | 39% 67% | 32% 58% |
| 2 | 30% 29% | 57% 38% | 13% 33% |
Set to set +1.22 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.48 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Maja Chwalinska
10.4 points left on the table across 332 shots 3.12 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.86 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×7; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
Ekaterine Gorgodze
8.5 points left on the table across 340 shots 2.51 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH down the line rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH crosscourt ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts