Lyon · R16 · Clay · 19 May 2022
Alex Molcan v Karen Khachanov
67–55 in points · Alex Molcan won
Why it went the way it did
Alex Molcan won 5.8 more points than Karen Khachanov relative to what the serve alone predicted. Karen Khachanov's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.5, forehand execution −1.8, touch execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Alex Molcan | Karen Khachanov | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +2.0 | +2.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.2 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −0.4 | +0.6 | −0.6 | −0.3 |
| Forehand | −0.7 | +3.7 | −1.3 | +1.8 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | −1.8 | −1.0 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.8 | +0.9 | +1.6 | −0.5 | −1.1 | −0.7 | −2.3 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −2.2 | +0.6 | −1.8 | −0.2 | −2.5 | +0.2 | −2.5 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | +0.2 | +1.5 | +1.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.9 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −1.3 | −1.7 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −1.0 | +1.8 | +0.6 | +1.4 | −1.7 | −2.4 | −0.3 | −4.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Alex Molcan | Karen Khachanov | Net, Alex | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.6 | −1.6 | +3.1 | |
| 2 | −0.2 | −2.8 | +2.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Alex Molcan serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 71% | 13% 67% | 58% 71% |
| 2 | 32% 58% | 13% 80% | 55% 67% |
Within sets −0.11 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Karen Khachanov serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% 42% | – | 43% 78% |
| 2 | 49% 53% | – | 51% 65% |
Within sets −1.49 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Alex Molcan
6.9 points left on the table across 201 shots 3.43 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.57 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Karen Khachanov
6.8 points left on the table across 222 shots 3.05 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts