RallyIQ

ATP · Left-handed · 11 charted matches · 2022–2026

Alex Molcan

Archetype: Avoids the wide serve · Ad-court slider

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 64.0% ±3.2 raw 61.6% · tour 63.4% · 1,025 points
Return points won 36.9% ±3.3 raw 34.3% · tour 36.6% · 1,013 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.14 ±0.11 better than 20% of ATP · raw −0.14
Shot selection −0.41 ±0.18 better than 17% of ATP · raw −0.40
Execution +0.53 ±0.66 better than 85% of ATP · raw +0.66
Tactical adaptability −0.01 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 11 matches
Adaptation speed +0.07 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.65 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 45% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 6,391 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Alex Molcan goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 457 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 37% 48.4%±6.0 47.6%
BH through the middle 33% 49.3%±6.3 43.7%
BH down the line 14% 41.3%±8.9 46.4%
BH slice through the middle 6% 43.8%±11.8 35.1%
BH slice down the line 3% 44.0%±13.8 37.1%
BH slice crosscourt 2% 40.3%±14.5 42.5%
FH inside-in 2% 48.2%±14.8 54.7%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 400 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 33% 48.7%±6.7 48.0%
BH through the middle 26% 39.6%±7.3 43.8%
BH down the line 17% 50.3%±8.8 46.5%
BH slice through the middle 11% 36.5%±10.0 35.1%
BH slice crosscourt 3% 46.7%±14.3 42.1%
BH slice down the line 3% 33.8%±13.5 35.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 366 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 27% 56.0%±7.5 52.7%
BH through the middle 17% 49.2%±9.1 46.8%
BH down the line 14% 50.2%±9.6 48.3%
FH down the line 14% 49.0%±9.8 51.5%
FH through the middle 11% 39.4%±10.2 47.0%
BH crosscourt 7% 51.8%±12.1 49.1%
BH slice down the line 4% 46.0%±13.9 45.6%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 357 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 58% 46.6%±5.5 46.6%
FH through the middle 20% 47.6%±8.5 41.5%
FH down the line 15% 47.9%±9.6 44.7%
FH slice through the middle 3% 19.7%±11.9 24.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +4 How much less varied Alex Molcan's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 100 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 27% 47% ▲ 72% / 73%
Body 20% 13% 61% / 63%
T 53% 40% ▼ 66% / 75%

511 normal · 30 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 43% 36% 68% / 73%
Body 14% 11% 59% / 63%
T 43% 53% ▲ 71% / 72%

414 normal · 70 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide28% 62.5%±5.9 n=153 41% ▲
Body19% 60.0%±7.0 n=104 6% ▼
T53% 60.6%±4.5 n=284 53%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.85).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide42% 62.5%±5.2 n=202 42%
Body13% 54.5%±8.4 n=65 0% ▼
T45% 64.9%±5.0 n=217 58% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.11).
Optimal mix: +0.9 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.70 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +4.1±5.4 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (360 repeats, 643 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 24 37% +0.2±10.8
1stAd courtT 165 27% −1.2±5.2
1stAd courtWide 118 23% −4.1±5.7
1stDeuce courtBody 21 49% +12.3±11.5
1stDeuce courtT 140 19% −5.9±5.0
1stDeuce courtWide 194 29% +1.9±5.0
2ndAd courtBody 51 47% −2.7±9.1
2ndAd courtT 56 50% +0.5±8.9
2ndAd courtWide 70 49% +0.1±8.2
2ndDeuce courtBody 48 55% +5.7±9.3
2ndDeuce courtT 30 48% −1.5±10.6
2ndDeuce courtWide 96 47% −0.9±7.3

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Alex Molcan's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.9% · won 67% · −0.1±10.9 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.7% · won 64% · −2.7±11.2 vs own baseline
  3. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 4.6% · won 63% · −4.3±9.9 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 2.7% · won 60% · −6.7±11.4 vs own baseline
  5. Body serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.5% · won 59% · −7.8±10.8 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 11.4% · won 51% · +10.6±8.6 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt, short used 5.6% · won 46% · +5.6±10.8 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, deep used 5.0% · won 44% · +4.4±11.2 vs own baseline
  4. vs T serve (ad court) → BH down the line, mid used 4.1% · won 42% · +2.0±11.6 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 7.9% · won 41% · +1.2±9.7 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 9.7% · won 55% · +5.9±5.9 vs own baseline
  2. BH down the line → FH crosscourt used 4.1% · won 54% · +5.2±8.5 vs own baseline
  3. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 5.1% · won 53% · +4.6±7.8 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 3.9% · won 52% · +3.7±8.6 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 4.4% · won 51% · +2.4±8.2 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Alex Molcan wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.5% · won 56% · +7.7±6.7 vs own baseline · +9.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Hubert Hurkacz (2/8), Emil Ruusuvuori (2/6)
  2. T serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.5% · won 65% · +16.9±11.9 vs own baseline · +34.3 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. FH crosscourt → BH through the middle → BH through the middle used 0.9% · won 56% · +7.8±10.8 vs own baseline · +16.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Stan Wawrinka (5/9), Mariano Navone (4/7)
  4. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.2% · won 54% · +5.5±10.1 vs own baseline · +14.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roman Safiullin (7/13), John Millman (4/6)
  5. BH through the middle → FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.5% · won 56% · +7.6±12.5 vs own baseline · +17.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Stan Wawrinka (4/6)
  6. FH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 1.6% · won 52% · +3.5±9.1 vs own baseline · +0.7 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their backhand · rally+3.0744
BH to the middle · return+2.3263
BH to their forehand · rally+1.9385
FH to their backhand · return +1+1.5142
BH to the middle · rally+1.0393

Most exposed to

BH to their forehand · rally−2.1451
BH to the middle · rally−1.6352
FH to their backhand · rally−1.5684
BH to the middle · return−1.4242
T 1st serve · deuce court−1.1231

Best-equipped opponents

Active players whose shot mix lines up best against these weaknesses, by structural compatibility per 100 rally shots: Rafael Nadal +2.07, Jack Draper +1.70, Miomir Kecmanovic +1.47, Pedro Martinez +1.34, Yoshihito Nishioka +1.28

Favourable matchups

Pedro Martinez +2.02, Miomir Kecmanovic +2.00, Cameron Norrie +1.95, Arthur Rinderknech +1.91, Adrian Mannarino +1.90

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Juncheng Shang, Pedro Martinez, Learner Tien, Miomir Kecmanovic, Nishesh Basavareddy

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Avg rally length5.3
1st serve in66%
T serves · deuce52%
Drop shots / shot2.6%
T serves · ad45%
BH down the line24%
Through the middle27%
Chipped returns19%
Deep returns29%
Forehand share52%
Backhand slice17%
Serve & volley2%
Points at net7%
Run-around forehands10%
Unforced errors / shot7.6%
Wide serves · ad42%
Point-ending shots15.8%
FH down the line20%
Wide serves · deuce28%

Plays most like

  1. Guido Pella 2014–2021 plan v
  2. Yoshihito Nishioka 2015–2025 plan v
  3. Miomir Kecmanovic 2019–2026 plan v
  4. Gael Monfils 2005–2026 plan v
  5. Juan Martin Del Potro 2007–2022 plan v
  6. Emil Ruusuvuori 2021–2024 plan v
  7. Albert Ramos 2014–2025 plan v
  8. Jiri Vesely 2015–2023 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Nikolay Davydenko 2002–2014
  2. David Nalbandian 2002–2012
  3. Tommy Haas 1996–2017

Charted matches