Roland Garros · R128 · Clay · 24 May 2022
Oksana Selekhmeteva v Kaja Juvan
86–92 in points · Kaja Juvan won
Why it went the way it did
Kaja Juvan won 3.3 more points than Oksana Selekhmeteva relative to what the serve alone predicted. Oksana Selekhmeteva's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −5.6, backhand execution −4.3, slice execution −2.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Oksana Selekhmeteva | Kaja Juvan | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −1.7 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.0 |
| Return | −0.7 | −0.7 | −1.4 | −2.8 | +0.2 | +1.4 | +1.2 | +2.8 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +2.0 | −1.6 | +0.8 | +0.2 | +1.4 | −8.1 | −6.5 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.1 | −4.3 | −4.4 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −1.8 | −2.1 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −5.6 | −2.2 | −7.9 | ±0.0 | −3.0 | −0.8 | −3.8 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.4 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.6 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.6 | −0.7 | −2.8 | +0.5 | −3.0 |
| All shots | −1.2 | −3.9 | −10.8 | −16.0 | −0.6 | −2.8 | −9.2 | −12.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Oksana Selekhmeteva | Kaja Juvan | Net, Oksana | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −7.0 | −4.9 | −2.1 | |
| 2 | −8.9 | −7.7 | −1.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Oksana Selekhmeteva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 64% | 35% 33% | 33% 36% |
| 2 | 31% 67% | 29% 43% | 41% 55% |
Set to set +1.56 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.47 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Kaja Juvan serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 47% | 29% 67% | 29% 33% |
| 2 | 44% 65% | 18% 38% | 38% 59% |
Set to set −1.05 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.09 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Oksana Selekhmeteva
10.8 points left on the table across 323 shots 3.35 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH down the line rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH slice down the line ×2; FH slice through the middle rates higher · 0.32 pts
Kaja Juvan
8.9 points left on the table across 326 shots 2.72 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH lob down the line ×3; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH lob down the line ×3; BH lob through the middle rates higher · 0.27 pts