Queens Club · R32 · Grass · 14 Jun 2022
Sam Querrey v Diego Schwartzman
56–38 in points · Sam Querrey won
Why it went the way it did
Sam Querrey won 7.7 more points than Diego Schwartzman relative to what the serve alone predicted. Diego Schwartzman's biggest leaks: serve 2nd execution −1.5, slice shot selection −1.2, forehand direction choices −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Sam Querrey | Diego Schwartzman | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | +3.3 | +3.4 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | −1.5 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.4 | +1.2 | +1.8 | +0.2 | −0.3 | +1.7 | +1.6 |
| Forehand | −0.6 | +1.6 | −0.9 | +0.1 | −1.1 | +0.6 | +1.8 | +1.4 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.1 | +1.6 | +1.5 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −1.3 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.8 | −0.9 | −1.8 | −0.4 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | −1.7 |
| Net | −0.5 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +0.8 | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.6 | +0.5 |
| All shots | −1.0 | +1.1 | +5.3 | +5.4 | −1.9 | −1.2 | +0.9 | −2.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Sam Querrey | Diego Schwartzman | Net, Sam | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.8 | −3.2 | +7.0 | |
| 2 | +1.6 | +0.9 | +0.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Sam Querrey serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 80% | – | 52% 73% |
| 2 | 43% 69% | – | 57% 71% |
Within sets +0.04 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Diego Schwartzman serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 14% | 27% 75% | 27% 25% |
| 2 | 46% 62% | 11% 100% | 43% 67% |
Within sets −2.33 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Sam Querrey
4.9 points left on the table across 130 shots 3.74 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle + approach ×2; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.23 pts
Diego Schwartzman
5.4 points left on the table across 122 shots 4.46 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.87 pts
- Serve +1: slice to your middle hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Serve +1: slice to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts