RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 19 charted matches · 2010–2022

Sam Querrey

Archetype: High-risk · Runs around the backhand

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 66.8% ±2.8 raw 67.1% · tour 63.4% · 1,816 points
Return points won 36.6% ±3.0 raw 31.9% · tour 36.6% · 1,696 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.16 ±0.10 better than 89% of ATP · raw +0.16
Shot selection +0.50 ±0.22 better than 93% of ATP · raw +0.50
Execution −0.88 ±0.95 better than 28% of ATP · raw −0.94
Tactical adaptability +0.08 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 19 matches
Adaptation speed +0.22 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.35 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 79% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 6,859 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Sam Querrey goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 288 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 40% 39.6%±6.9 47.6%
BH through the middle 24% 41.9%±8.6 43.7%
BH down the line 15% 51.2%±10.4 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 7% 42.3%±13.0 42.5%
FH inside-in 5% 51.3%±14.3 54.7%
BH slice through the middle 4% 37.6%±14.1 35.1%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 230 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 49% 49.2%±7.1 46.9%
BH through the middle 20% 37.9%±9.9 43.0%
BH down the line 13% 46.6%±11.7 44.2%
BH slice crosscourt 10% 31.4%±11.8 40.9%
BH slice through the middle 7% 30.0%±12.7 32.6%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 217 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 26% 45.5%±9.4 52.7%
FH down the line 22% 44.6%±9.9 51.5%
BH through the middle 13% 49.7%±11.7 46.8%
FH through the middle 13% 48.8%±11.9 47.0%
BH crosscourt 13% 43.4%±11.8 49.1%
BH down the line 5% 40.8%±14.5 48.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 204 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 44% 40.3%±7.7 46.6%
FH down the line 29% 48.0%±9.2 44.7%
FH through the middle 19% 41.2%±10.5 41.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +1 How much less varied Sam Querrey's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 144 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 46% 44% 76% / 73%
Body 5% 0% 67% / 63%
T 49% 56% 82% / 75%

887 normal · 36 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 51% 50% 81% / 73%
Body 5% 7% 62% / 63%
T 44% 43% 74% / 72%

729 normal · 108 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide46% 65.7%±3.7 n=427 38% ▼
Body5% 64.0%±9.2 n=43 0% ▼
T49% 69.5%±3.4 n=453 62% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.27).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide51% 68.5%±3.6 n=425 64% ▲
Body6% 61.8%±9.1 n=47 0% ▼
T44% 63.3%±4.0 n=365 36% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.15).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.62 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +4.7±4.9 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (927 repeats, 795 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 70 30% −6.9±7.5
1stAd courtT 208 26% −1.8±4.7
1stAd courtWide 215 23% −4.3±4.4
1stDeuce courtBody 64 38% +1.6±8.2
1stDeuce courtT 234 21% −4.4±4.1
1stDeuce courtWide 270 26% −1.1±4.2
2ndAd courtBody 110 51% +1.9±6.9
2ndAd courtT 48 41% −8.5±9.2
2ndAd courtWide 113 49% +0.2±6.9
2ndDeuce courtBody 138 42% −6.9±6.3
2ndDeuce courtT 104 48% −2.0±7.1
2ndDeuce courtWide 55 49% +0.7±8.9

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Sam Querrey's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.3% · won 66% · −7.2±9.9 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 65% · −8.2±9.8 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.2% · won 61% · −12.7±10.2 vs own baseline
  4. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 59% · −14.0±10.5 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.0% · won 61% · −12.2±9.4 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 2.8% · won 44% · +10.4±10.8 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, short used 2.9% · won 43% · +9.7±10.7 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 2.6% · won 44% · +10.2±11.0 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 4.1% · won 42% · +8.0±9.6 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 5.1% · won 40% · +6.5±8.9 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 3.2% · won 48% · +4.9±11.7 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 6.5% · won 45% · +2.8±9.7 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 4.2% · won 44% · +1.6±10.9 vs own baseline
  4. FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 3.2% · won 44% · +0.9±11.6 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 7.5% · won 43% · +0.5±9.2 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Sam Querrey wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 48% · +3.7±12.1 vs own baseline · −0.8 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.3% · won 45% · +0.8±10.5 vs own baseline · −1.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andy Murray (5/6)
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 0.6% · won 45% · +1.1±12.7 vs own baseline · +2.5 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 44% · ±0.0±10.4 vs own baseline · −3.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andy Murray (7/16)
  5. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.6% · won 44% · ±0.0±12.5 vs own baseline · −8.6 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. BH through the middle → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 44% · −0.2±12.8 vs own baseline · −2.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

T 1st serve · deuce court+3.1435
BH to their backhand · return+1.8247
FH to their backhand · serve +1+1.5203
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+1.3407
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.7406

Most exposed to

FH to their forehand · rally−3.2273
FH to their forehand · serve +1−2.3169
FH to the middle · rally−1.7138
FH to their backhand · rally−1.1234
BH to their backhand · serve +1−1.1143

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Roberto Carballes Baena, Roberto Bautista Agut, Miomir Kecmanovic, Pedro Martinez, Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Unforced errors / shot13.8%
Point-ending shots32.4%
T serves · ad44%
T serves · deuce49%
Wide serves · deuce46%
Run-around forehands23%
Deep returns28%
Points at net12%
Forehand share54%
Drop shots / shot1.7%
Wide serves · ad51%
1st serve in61%
BH down the line19%
FH down the line29%
Backhand slice17%
Serve & volley3%
Chipped returns11%
Through the middle21%
Avg rally length3.1

Plays most like

  1. Zizou Bergs 2021–2026 plan v
  2. Lucas Pouille 2015–2024 plan v
  3. Alexei Popyrin 2019–2026 plan v
  4. Marin Cilic 2009–2026 plan v
  5. Sebastian Korda 2021–2026 plan v
  6. Jo Wilfried Tsonga 2007–2022 plan v
  7. Lloyd Harris 2019–2024 plan v
  8. Roman Safiullin 2017–2025 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Yevgeny Kafelnikov 1994–2002
  2. Thomas Enqvist 1993–2001
  3. Andre Agassi 1988–2006

Charted matches