Corrientes CH · F · Clay · 19 Jun 2022
Francisco Comesana v Mariano Navone
60–37 in points · Francisco Comesana won
Why it went the way it did
Francisco Comesana won 10.4 more points than Mariano Navone relative to what the serve alone predicted. Mariano Navone's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.8, serve 1st execution −1.2, slice shot selection −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Francisco Comesana | Mariano Navone | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −1.2 | −1.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.5 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.5 | +1.4 | +1.9 | +0.3 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.5 |
| Forehand | −0.5 | +4.3 | −2.0 | +1.7 | ±0.0 | +2.0 | −4.8 | −2.8 |
| Backhand | −0.6 | −0.2 | +1.6 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +0.5 | ±0.0 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −3.4 | +1.2 | −2.2 | +0.1 | −1.2 | −0.8 | −1.9 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.1 | −0.9 | −0.6 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −1.1 | −0.3 | −1.6 |
| Other | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.9 | +1.3 | +1.5 | +1.9 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −7.9 | −8.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Francisco Comesana | Mariano Navone | Net, Francisco | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.1 | −6.5 | +6.6 | |
| 2 | +1.7 | −2.1 | +3.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Francisco Comesana serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% 71% | – | 42% 60% |
| 2 | 50% 57% | 7% 50% | 43% 50% |
Within sets −0.79 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Mariano Navone serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 27% | 38% 50% | 19% 40% |
| 2 | 28% 40% | 44% 25% | 28% 20% |
Within sets +2.05 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Francisco Comesana
7.6 points left on the table across 264 shots 2.86 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×12; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
Mariano Navone
7.1 points left on the table across 276 shots 2.56 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.98 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.27 pts